A market forecast favors a Federal Reserve increase at its December meeting, giving international investors a read on rate expectations without representing a policy commitment.
The contract assigned 77% to a quarter-point increase and 23% to no change. A quarter-point move is 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point. The contract drew $16.7 million in trading.
The reading is near a 76.9% post-midterm probability reported in earlier EconoTimes coverage, while a subsequent Friday estimate from Prime Terminal put the chance at 70%. These are market estimates; they do not show a decision by the Fed.
Investors will receive further price and employment data before the Fed's December meeting.
