A Further GBP weakness is expected this week as price and labour market data should confirm the current low inflation environment and investors likely sharpen their focus on the highly uncertain general election which is now less than four weeks away.
UK March CPI inflation (Tuesday) is likely to remain at 0.0% y/y (0.2% m/m), in line with the consensus forecast. Labour market data (Friday) is likely to show a small drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in February (consensus: 5.6%), from 5.7% in January.
The consensus forecast is expecting average weekly earnings growth to remain at 1.8% 3m/yoy and the ex-bonus measure to increase slightly to 1.7% 3m/yoy (last: 1.6%), well below their 15-year average of about 3.0%. The market expects March jobless claims to fall 29,500, slightly less than recent declines
"we continue to recommended selling GBPUSD spot (reference: 1.4902) targeting 1.4050, above important technical support, with a stop loss at 1.5180, above recent range highs", Says Barclays
