Stronger dollar to put downward pressure on US imported goods prices in the near-term
The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough at least to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%. But there is a good chance that …
The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough at least to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%.
But there is a good chance that base effects will drive that annual inflation rate back into negative territory for most of the first half of this year.
Capital Economics notes .....
In the near-term, the stronger dollar will continue to put downward pressure on imported goods prices. But going in the other direction, rising labour costs will put upward pressure on core services prices.
As the dampening effect from the stronger dollar fades in the second half of this year, we would expect to see core inflation gradually strengthen.
By the first half of 2016, we anticipate that it will climb back to the Fed's 2% target, prompting a more aggressive monetary tightening that either Fed officials or the markets currently expect.
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