A DemosAU/PremierNational poll puts Victoria’s Labor Party at 18% of the primary vote, behind One Nation and the Liberal/National Coalition, as the state heads toward its Nov. 28 election.
The Guardian reported that the Herald Sun first published the survey. It put the Coalition at 33%, One Nation at 21%, Labor at 18%, the Greens at 17% and other parties and candidates at 11%.
Labor’s share is seven percentage points below the 25% recorded in DemosAU’s September survey. That report had the Coalition at 30%, One Nation at 20% and the Greens at 14%; compared with those figures, the latest poll shows gains of three, one and three points, respectively.
The Guardian reported that the poll’s two-party-preferred estimate gives the Coalition 56% and Labor 44%, compared with 52%-48% in September. The Australian Election Tracker lists the latest survey’s fieldwork as Oct. 30 to Nov. 5, with 1,562 respondents. The Guardian separately reported an effective sample of 818.
The Australian Election Tracker also records Labor at 24% in a Newspoll conducted Oct. 15-22 and 22.5% in a Roy Morgan poll from Oct. 26-29. The Guardian reported that unnamed Labor MPs questioned the 18% result, which the campaign was treating as an outlier, and raised concerns about strategy, including the party’s focus on crime.
Premier Ben Carroll did not directly address the poll when asked, The Guardian reported. He described his campaign focus as “fighting for working people.” DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos told the outlet he stood by the survey and said a matching election-night result could give the Coalition a “clear Coalition majority.”
The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) says Labor received 37.03% of first-preference votes and won 56 lower-house seats in the 2022 election, a different measure from a poll. The VEC has scheduled the next state election for Nov. 28, when voters will elect 88 Legislative Assembly members and 40 Legislative Council members.
