Swiss survey indicators point to recession in near-term
Switzerland's PMI manufacturing index fell to 47.3 in February, the lowest level since October 2012. Meanwhile, the KOF leading indicator fell to 90.1 in February, the lowest since December 2011.Standard Chartered notes …
Switzerland's PMI manufacturing index fell to 47.3 in February, the lowest level since October 2012.
Meanwhile, the KOF leading indicator fell to 90.1 in February, the lowest since December 2011.
Standard Chartered notes its expectations as follows:
We believe that the Swiss technical recession - i.e., two consecutive quarters of negative q/q growth - is likely to be short lived.
We expect the Swiss economy to return to positive growth in H2 as the euro area and US economies grow faster this year than they did in H2-2014, raising demand for Swiss goods and services.
We expect the SNB to target 3M LIBOR within -1.25% to -0.25% this year and next, while the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its quantitative easing (QE) programme and inflationary pressures remain weak.
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