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TD Cowen initiated coverage of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, pointing to artificial intelligence computing as a major near-term growth engine alongside the company’s expanding space businesses.
Analyst John Blackledge said SpaceX’s longer-term outlook could increasingly benefit from a broad range of AI and space-related opportunities, although some may take years to make a meaningful contribution to earnings.
TD Cowen expects terrestrial AI compute leasing to become SpaceX’s fastest-growing revenue source and its largest business by the first quarter of 2027. Customers for the company’s ground-based computing capacity include Google and Anthropic.
The firm estimates AI compute leasing revenue will reach $14 billion in 2026, representing about 35% of SpaceX’s total revenue. That figure is projected to climb to $66 billion in 2027, or roughly 58% of revenue, before reaching $133 billion in 2028, equivalent to about 65%.
According to TD Cowen, AI compute leasing could generate more than 70% of SpaceX’s incremental revenue growth during 2027 and 2028.
SpaceX’s terrestrial computing capacity is forecast to expand from 2.1 gigawatts in 2026 to 6 gigawatts in 2027 and 22 gigawatts by 2031. TD Cowen projects companywide revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of 62% between 2026 and 2031, with EBITDA reaching $297 billion by 2031.
Starlink is also expected to remain a significant growth driver. TD Cowen forecasts the satellite internet service will reach 107 million consumer subscribers worldwide by 2031, including approximately 10 million in the United States. The firm said enterprise and government connectivity could represent an even larger opportunity.
SpaceX’s launch capabilities provide another competitive advantage. Blackledge said rivals may be unable to match the company’s low-Earth-orbit cargo capacity for as long as a decade. TD Cowen expects SpaceX launches to approach 1,000 annually by 2031.
SpaceX shares closed at $149.24 on Tuesday, up 2.59%, putting TD Cowen’s $200 price target about 34% above the closing price.
