A TD Securities forecast described by FXStreet and a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model both point to slower monthly U.S. price growth in October, while official data will arrive after the Fed’s next meeting.
FXStreet reported that TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.30% from September. They project a 0.21% increase in core CPI, which excludes food and energy, and a 0.24% gain in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
In its Oct. 19 model estimate, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland put October’s monthly gains at 0.27% for headline CPI, 0.21% for core CPI and 0.25% for core PCE. Both sets of figures are forecasts; October results have yet to be released.
The estimates follow a September CPI report in which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recorded a 0.6% monthly increase in headline prices and a 3.7% rise from a year earlier. Gasoline’s 9.1% increase made up more than half of the monthly headline gain. Shelter rose 0.4%, the food index was unchanged and core CPI increased 0.3%.
According to FXStreet, Munoz and Nir expect slower shelter and services inflation and lower used-vehicle prices in October. Gasoline and food could still add to the headline index. FXStreet reported that their estimate remains tentative and could shift as more price information becomes available.
The Fed closely watches core PCE. It raised its target interest-rate range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%-4% in September, saying inflation remained elevated and citing its 2% goal.
The Fed is scheduled to meet Oct. 27-28. September PCE data are due Oct. 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the October CPI report Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
