Tepid core inflation to support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance
February CPI inflation data will be released Tuesday (08:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes: In line with the consensus, we think headline prices were up 0.2% m/m, from -0.7% prior, driven by higher gasoline price…
February CPI inflation data will be released Tuesday (08:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes:
In line with the consensus, we think headline prices were up 0.2% m/m, from -0.7% prior, driven by higher gasoline prices.
We think core CPI inflation was up 0.1% m/m (1.6% y/y), after 0.2% in January.
This should mean that core PCE inflation - the Fed's reference - was also up 0.1% m/m, a still-tepid rate supporting the Fed's wait-and-see stance.
The March preliminary Markit PMI index (09:45 ET) is seen as less important than the ISM index, but still provides valuable information on business sentiment, in our view.
Echoing recent softer regional surveys (e.g., Empire and Philly Fed indices), we expect a slight erosion from February's 55.1.
February new home sales (10:00 ET) were likely hit by the poor weather in line with recent housing data.
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