Texas data center growth could sharply raise power-sector pollution by 2031, but a Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) model says the effect depends on how facilities get electricity.
Under HARC’s grid-mix scenario, NOx is projected to stand 136% above its 2025 level by 2031, near a 2004 benchmark cited in the assessment. That 2004 figure covers power and industrial emissions together. For 2031, the model places fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in this case at roughly 90% above their 2025 levels. The center attributes earlier emissions declines to changes in fuel use, controls on power plants and vehicles, and coal-generation retirements.
HARC tested another configuration that pairs grid electricity for about one-third of data-center demand with on-site solar and wind for the balance. Its estimates for NOx and CO2 are about two-thirds below the grid-only case. Even the model’s least-polluting arrangement leaves emissions above the projected baseline without new data centers.
In its highest-demand projection, HARC estimates that data-center gas engines would emit more NOx annually than all Texas sources emit at present. Pollution controls reduce the estimate; controlled engines nevertheless produce NOx at about two to three times the grid-power level. “Power-supply choice is what drives the outcome,” said Carlos Gamarra, HARC’s vice president for energy, air and IT.
Gamarra told The Texas Tribune that some developers opt for on-site power when grid connections take three to five years. The emissions analysis adds an air-quality dimension to EconoTimes’ earlier coverage of data-center demand and utilities’ defensive role.
HARC used data-center demand forecasts from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, transmission service providers and BAXTEL. Its model treats facilities as running continuously at 80% capacity and applies one power arrangement to all new data center demand within each scenario. Actual projects may combine supply sources, while delays or cancellations could lower emissions. The estimates cover statewide annual emissions; they do not measure pollution concentrations in specific communities or estimate health effects.
