Thailand’s main private-sector panel raised its 2026 growth range after a new factory-output measure showed stronger production, though central-bank and IMF forecasts point to uneven gains and slower expansion.
The Joint Private Sector Committee of Three Institutions (JPSC) set its forecast at 2.4% to 2.6%, up from 2.1% to 2.5%. It said manufacturing production increased 2.6% in the first nine months of the year under the revised measure, whereas the previous index had shown a contraction. Technology products rose 18.9%, the committee reported.
The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) now uses a chain-link method with 2021 as the reference year for its manufacturing index. The September reading was 101.37, up 2.05% from a year earlier; the third-quarter figure was 100.30, a 3.40% annual increase. The index measures factory production, and its revision does not change Thailand’s reported GDP figures.
The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 outlook puts Thailand’s 2026 growth at 2.1%. It projects 8.4% for Vietnam, 5.2% for Malaysia, 5.1% for Indonesia, 5.0% for Singapore and 3.4% for the Philippines.
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) forecasts growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The central bank cites household debt, fragile labor-market conditions and weak purchasing power as constraints on consumption; it also said living costs weighed on spending in September.
The JPSC said AI and data-center activity is concentrated in what it calls the economy’s “upper K” segments. Imported raw materials account for about 60% of related inputs, the committee said, limiting the activity’s spillover into the wider economy. The BOT said benefits largely accrue to businesses and workers in connected manufacturing and service industries.
Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Council is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP figures on Nov. 15 at 9:30 p.m. ET (Nov. 16 at 9:30 a.m. Bangkok time).
