S&P Global’s October flash survey showed U.K. private-sector activity strengthening as hiring returned and input-cost inflation accelerated, adding new evidence on growth and prices before the Bank of England’s Nov. 5 rate decision.
The survey, which collects responses from senior executives at private-sector companies, put its composite output measure at 53.1, up from 52.0 in September. The reading was the highest since February and extended the expansion to a fourth consecutive month, S&P Global said.
Services and manufacturing recorded equal rates of growth. Factory output expanded at its quickest pace since September 2024, while services growth reached a level last seen in February. New orders at service providers had their strongest monthly increase since August 2025. Manufacturing orders also rose, alongside a marked improvement in goods export orders.
October was the first month since September 2024 in which the survey showed overall employment growing. Services firms added workers, while manufacturers cut headcounts slightly as they sought to reduce costs. S&P described the overall increase in hiring as modest.
Input-cost pressures intensified in both sectors. Firms pointed to higher energy and fuel prices and additional freight charges associated with supply disruptions linked to the Middle East. Companies raised the prices they charged for goods and services sharply, though the increase was slower than in September.
Danske Research Team viewed the survey as a hawkish signal ahead of the Bank of England’s November meeting, FXStreet reported Oct. 26.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in September in a 6-3 vote by its Monetary Policy Committee. Three of the nine members favored a quarter-point increase to 4%. S&P said some companies had paused spending amid uncertainty about domestic policy before the Budget.
HM Treasury scheduled the 2026 Budget for Wednesday, Oct. 28. The Bank of England’s next rate decision is due Nov. 5.
