U.S. chief executives became more downbeat about the economy in Q4 2026, with 41% expecting conditions to worsen over the following six months, even as most said they would hold or increase capital investment.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, prepared with The Business Council, dropped six points to 46 from 52 in Q3. Scores below 50 indicate that unfavorable responses outnumber favorable ones. The Conference Board described the result as the lowest since Q2 2025. It surveyed 131 CEOs from Sept. 21 through Oct. 5.
The biggest shift concerned the six-month U.S. outlook: 41% expected the economy to worsen, compared with 19% in Q3, while the share anticipating improvement fell to 13% from 25%. Their assessments of recent conditions also turned more negative. Thirty-seven percent said conditions were worse than six months earlier, up from 26%; 19% saw improvement, versus 23% in the prior quarter.
Expectations for CEOs’ own industries weakened as well. The share forecasting improvement fell to 25% from 36%, while 28% anticipated deterioration, up from 13%.
Investment intentions remained steadier. Fifty-three percent planned to maintain their existing capital investment plans, and 36% expected to increase them. Hiring plans were mixed: 33% expected to expand their workforce, 31% to reduce it and 36% to make no change.
Cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and geopolitical risks remained the top three business risks and were rated with greater intensity, The Conference Board said. The share planning wage increases of at least 4% rose to 16% from 9% in Q3. Dana M Peterson, The Conference Board's chief economist, said international tensions and higher oil costs may have played a role in the decline while responses were being collected.
The measure records how executives view the economy and what they plan to do, but it does not report subsequent growth or expenditures already made.
