Vistage’s CEO Confidence Index for U.S. small and midsize business leaders fell again in Q3 2026, while expectations for company profits lagged sales growth amid cost pressures.
The measure dropped 3.4 points to 80.8 from 84.2 in Q2 2026. It had read 88.9 in Q4 2025 and 87.2 in Q1 2026. Vistage builds the index from answers to six questions about the U.S. economy and businesses’ revenue, profit, hiring and investment outlooks; the series dates to Q2 2003.
In the latest survey, 62% expected revenue to increase over the next 12 months, compared with 47% who anticipated higher profits. Views on the wider economy were more negative: 19% expected conditions to improve during the coming year, and 34% foresaw a deterioration. The share expecting improvement was down 10 percentage points from Q2, while the share expecting worsening was up eight points, Vistage said.
Health care benefits stood out among cost concerns. Nearly three-quarters of respondents (74%) expected their firms’ health care expenses to increase at least 6% in 2027, with 33% projecting a rise greater than 10%. Vistage’s research analysis said participants also cited labor, fuel, insurance, materials and freight costs. Some described customers delaying or canceling orders or resisting higher prices, factors Vistage said were weighing on margins.
Plans to expand remained common. Half of respondents planned to increase staffing over the next year, and 36% intended to raise fixed investment. These figures describe intentions, not completed hires or spending.
Vistage surveyed 1,146 leaders from its Chief Executive and Small Business member groups online from Sept. 8 to Sept. 22. A separate survey of large-company CEOs by The Conference Board, covering 131 mostly large-company chief executives, found its confidence measure fell to 46 in Q4 from 52 in Q3; responses were collected Sept. 21 to Oct. 5. The surveys used different samples and measures, so their scores are not directly comparable.
