U.S. electricity consumption is forecast to reach 4,371 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027, with commercial and industrial sales rising even as residential sales edge lower, the EIA said.
The EIA’s November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook lists consumption at 4,216 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 and 4,306 billion in 2026. The agency released the outlook Nov. 10.
The EIA forecasts electric-power-sector generation to grow 2.7% in 2026, citing commercial demand and hot summer temperatures. It puts growth at 1.2% for 2027. The agency expects continued commercial and industrial demand gains to be partly balanced by lower residential demand under its milder-summer forecast.
Commercial electricity sales are projected to rise from 1,557 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 to 1,600 billion in 2027. Industrial sales are forecast to increase from 1,061 billion to 1,086 billion, while residential sales are expected to fall from 1,546 billion to 1,539 billion. These customer sales are a narrower measure than total electricity consumption.
In its Sept. 9 release, the EIA cited data-center development and increased manufacturing activity as drivers of commercial and industrial demand. The November outlook does not quantify how much of its consumption forecast comes from data centers.
The generation mix is also projected to change. Utility-scale solar is forecast to supply 7% of generation in 2025 and 10% in 2027, while coal’s share falls from 17% to 15%. The EIA expects 72 gigawatts of new solar capacity and 20 gigawatts of new wind capacity to come online across 2026 and 2027.
The average residential electricity price is forecast to rise from 17.24 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2025 to 18.17 cents in 2026 and 18.68 cents in 2027. The outlook does not directly link the projected price increase to rising consumption. The EIA scheduled its next Short-Term Energy Outlook release for Dec. 8.
