An Econbrowser analysis by Menzie Chinn estimates that equities and mutual funds were 31% of U.S. household net worth in 2026, above their 26% share in 2000, a comparison relevant to consumer spending.
Using the third quarter of 1995 as a starting point, Chinn’s inflation-adjusted series shows holdings rising about 60% by 2000. His estimates put the 2026 readings a little more than 40% above that starting value. The net-worth share was higher in the later estimate even though the real holdings gain was smaller.
The second- and third-quarter 2026 values are modeled. Chinn estimated household holdings from their relationship with S&P 500 values in a regression covering 2022 through 2026. His analysis uses inflation-adjusted equity and mutual fund holdings, separating asset-value changes from the effect of consumer prices.
The figures also inform a question about household spending: how much consumption changes when wealth moves. Chinn cited Beach, Gamber and Moran (2025), whose estimates put the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth at about 3.4 cents per dollar in 2000 and 2.6 cents in 2019. The measure describes the consumption response to a change in wealth, rather than the share of a household’s budget spent. Chinn said the authors linked the decline to rising wealth concentration.
Separate Federal Reserve estimates found that households in the top 1% by net worth held 32.5% of U.S. household wealth in the second quarter of 2026, up from 31.7% in the first quarter, according to EconoTimes’ earlier coverage of wealth distribution. That provides a separate measure of the concentration Chinn cites.
Using the lower spending response, Chinn estimated that a $3 trillion wealth decline — about the scale of a drop in the preceding week — would reduce consumption by $80 billion. He compared that modeled amount with third-quarter personal consumption expenditures of about $22.5 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, calling it small on its own. Chinn said the effect would be more noticeable if the trend in how wealth changes affect spending also shifted.
