An ICICI Bank Economic Research Group note, as reported by NDTV Profit, says a Democratic gain could increase scrutiny of U.S. tariffs on India, but the election would not automatically end the current 10% duty.
The vote is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) imposed the additional duty under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. It applies to most Indian goods entered for U.S. consumption from July 24, with listed product exemptions.
The Supreme Court ruled Feb. 20 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The justices noted that the statute had gone about five decades without being used for tariffs. A White House order that day ended duties imposed under IEEPA while leaving duties under Sections 232 and 301 in place.
Earlier measures followed separate routes. A Feb. 6 White House framework specified an 18% reciprocal rate for Indian goods in certain categories; removing reciprocal duties on a wider group was conditional on completing an interim agreement. A separate 25% duty linked to Russian oil purchases ended Feb. 7. The later Section 301 duty was a distinct action.
The Federal Register notice says India adopted an import ban on forced-labor goods after the U.S. proposal. It describes the 10% rate as an incentive for enforcement and says product exclusions were intended to reduce the risk of shortages and wider economic disruption.
Congress could seek to change the policy through legislation passed by both chambers and presented to the president. If the president vetoed a bill, overriding it would require a two-thirds vote in each chamber, under the Constitution.
NDTV Profit reported that the ICICI note estimated a 63% chance Democrats would win both chambers and a 29% chance they would win the House alone. The outlet reported the note’s view that a Democratic gain could increase oversight without necessarily dismantling the tariff system.
USTR’s separate inquiry into manufacturing capacity and production includes India. The agency’s investigation page does not give a target date for a final decision. The Associated Press reported Oct. 20 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said only a few issues remained before a U.S.-India trade agreement could be finalized.
