The U.S. Treasury projects $800 billion in net marketable borrowing from private investors in the first quarter of 2027 as it evaluates the size of future debt auctions.
For the final quarter of 2026, Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion, down $10 billion from its August forecast. The projections assume it will hold $850 billion in cash at the end of December and $1 trillion at the end of March.
The lower late-2026 forecast largely reflects a larger opening cash balance than Treasury had expected. Lower projected net cash flows partly offset that advantage. Without the additional cash at the start of the quarter, Treasury said its borrowing estimate would be $24 billion above the August figure.
Treasury borrowed $742 billion from July through September and closed that quarter with $984 billion in cash. Its August forecast had assumed a closing cash balance of $950 billion.
The borrowing figures measure net marketable debt held by private investors, rather than the total value of securities sold at auction. The measure excludes Federal Reserve rollover allotments at auctions but includes financing needed when the Fed redeems maturing securities.
In August, Treasury said it expected to maintain the sizes of its nominal coupon and floating-rate note auctions for at least several quarters. It said future decisions would weigh structural investor demand against the costs and risks of different issuance patterns.
Treasury plans to release further quarterly refunding details Wednesday, Nov. 4.
