Britain's welfare bill is forecast to climb to £431 billion by fiscal 2031-32, putting pressure on the government's effort to cut costs as Prime Minister Andy Burnham promotes employment support.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) put spending at £353 billion in fiscal 2026-27 and projects it will reach £431 billion in fiscal 2031-32. The later figure equals 11.3% of gross domestic product.
The House of Commons Library's Budget briefing identifies rising health-related and pensioner benefits as the main sources of the projected increase. Those categories account for most of the forecast growth in spending as the bill rises.
Burnham framed his response around employment support, saying, “We just want to get stuck into supporting people to help people off benefits and into work.” His remarks described an aim but gave no date for when spending should fall.
Anadolu Agency reported that Chancellor John Healey had previously said the benefits bill would fall before the next general election. Burnham's office said it was not setting an arbitrary target or timetable, so his comments added no separate deadline.
Hansard records show that on Sept. 9 Burnham opposed a proposed £4 billion housing-benefit reduction and warned it could leave families homeless. In the same Sept. 9 exchange, Burnham also urged education changes and more mental-health support to reduce welfare spending. EconoTimes covered the Sept. 9 intervention in an earlier report on the welfare-cut debate.
The Budget also sets a timeline for reviews of young people outside education, employment or training and of disability benefits. It says the government will respond before the end of 2026 to final reports from the Milburn and Timms reviews. The Budget refers to them as the Milburn and Timms reviews. A White Paper is due early in 2027, followed by legislation later that year.
