The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in June to August, while fewer vacancies and slower Great Britain pay growth showed a mixed labor market ahead of the Bank of England’s Nov. 5 rate decision.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the unemployment rate was below the previously published 4.9% reading for May to July. It put the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 at 75.3%. The agency cautioned against drawing conclusions from short-term changes in its household survey.
An early ONS estimate showed UK vacancies fell by 21,000 from April to June, reaching 691,000 in July to September. Excluding the pandemic years, the last comparable vacancy count this low was recorded in July to September 2014. The ONS said feedback from smaller firms suggests higher labor costs may be holding back recruitment.
The payroll figures offered a different view of recent hiring. A provisional estimate put UK payrolled employment 13,000 higher in September than in August, but 66,000 lower than a year earlier. The monthly estimate is based on tax records and measures a different group from the household unemployment survey.
In Great Britain, annual growth in both regular pay, which excludes bonuses, and total pay was 3.7% in June to August. Total-pay growth had been 3.9% in the preceding three-month period. After adjustment for inflation using the ONS’s preferred measure, regular pay was 0.6% higher than a year earlier.
In a report published at 6 a.m. ET (10:00 UTC), ExchangeRates.org.uk quoted the pound at about $1.3348 against the dollar, up 0.29% on the day. Before the release, FXStreet had quoted it near $1.3333, up 0.22%. The two reports do not establish what drove the difference between those quotes.
The Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% in September, with three of its nine policymakers favoring an increase. September consumer-price data is due Oct. 21 at 2 a.m. ET (06:00 UTC), ahead of the bank’s next rate decision on Nov. 5.
