In the UK, business surveys have been pointing towards a rising output trend and this, in combination with more-promising signs from the euro area, should lead to an increase in manufacturing output of 0.5% mom in Januar…
In the UK, business surveys have been pointing towards a rising output trend and this, in combination with more-promising signs from the euro area, should lead to an increase in manufacturing output of 0.5% mom in January (after 0.1% in December).
The ECB will also hold its annual "ECB watchers conference" in Frankfurt where Draghi and Praet will be speaking. The business surveys are sending strong signals of renewed buoyancy in output.
Societe Generale Bank notes as follows on Wednesday:
The path is bumpy from month to month but orders remain firm at levels consistent with a clearly rising output trend.
Moreover, the news from the euro area is looking more promising with business sentiment picking up there as well.
That is not yet showing up in UK export orders but we think it is having a positive impact on UK business expectations and thus on output plans.
Accordingly, we predict an increase in manufacturing output of 0.5% mom in January after 0.1% in December.
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