UK retail sales strong underneath the choppy survey readings

The CBI Distributive Trades survey reading for reported sales oscillates wildly from month to month, having fallen from 49 in September to only 19 in October. This is a function both of large monthly fluctuations in sales (the official data showed a surge of 1.5% mom in September followed by a dip of 0.9% in October) as well as of the yoy comparison that the survey question asks for. 

The fall in the October survey reading should be at least partially reversed in the November survey but the size of the rebound is likely to have been limited by the fact that in November last year sales rose by 1.4% mom which is a high hurdle to repeat this year.