UK retail sales to dip after extra-ordinary September surge

Sales surged by 1.7% mom in September, far in excess of any market expectations. There were favourable bank holiday effects but, even so, the strength of sales was clearly unsustainable and will be reversed in the October data. 

The CBI and BRC surveys (both of which look at yoy changes) support that argument, having recorded big falls. Of course, especially after such a big move it is very difficult to make a precise forecast of the size of the reversal. 

"We predict a fall of 1.0% mom in sales ex auto fuels", says Societe Generale.