UK retail sales to rise by 0.4%

Both UK's CBI and BRC retail surveys have indicated a strong retail performance in September. This is credible for two main reasons. First, the fundamentals remain strong; real income growth is high and consumer confidence is firm. 

Second, the surveys make comparisons with a year earlier. This year, the bulk of the August bank holiday weekend is covered in the September rather than the August sampling period. 

"Last year, the bulk of the bank holiday was captured in the August survey. An increase of 0.4% mom is expected in I sales ex auto fuels which should lift the yoy rate from 3.5% to 4.7% yoy", says Societe Generale.