US: ADP was a touch softer than expected

ADP was a touch softer than expected (190k vs est. 200k), but not enough to alter expectations for Friday's NFP. ADP has on average been about 22k lower than private payrolls over the last 6 months. As an indicator for NFP, more weight is put on tonight's ISM services report. Some in the market have played up the NFP 'August effect'- downside misses which were subsequently revised higher. 

"We caution against such expectations playing out again this Friday as historical Aug observations in recent years do not add much insight into the actual numbers and have little context (2014's Aug payrolls, for example, was significantly affected by a well-advertised grocery store strike)", says RBC Capital Markets.

In addition, basing a call for a weak August print solely on the performance of this month over recent history is a stretch given the volatility of the survey that has a standard error of ~100k. 

"We are above consensus for Friday's payroll at +240k (cons: +217k)", added RBC Capital Markets.