Market Roundup
- BOJ keeps monetary policy steady, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 80 trln yen.
- BOJ Gov Kuroda: BOJ doing utmost to achieve inflation goal, too early to debate exit; don't see change in price trend; risks seen last Oct have disappeared; Japan financial system stable, resilient to interest rates, FX shocks.
- German Foreign Min spokeswoman says no reason to think Greece's position has changed regarding sanctions against Russia.
- Germany Feb Industrial Orders Mm increases to -0.9 % (consensus 1.5 %) vs previous -2.6 % (revised from -3.9 %).
- European Union Feb Retail Sales yy decreases to 3.0 % (consensus 3.0 %) vs previous 3.7 %.
- European Union Feb Retail Sales mm decreases to -0.2 % (consensus -0.2 %) vs previous 1.1 %.
- France Feb Exports, Approx Time increases to 37.3 bln eur vs previous 36.849 bln eur.
- France Feb Imports, Approx Time increases to 40.8 bln eur vs previous 40.575 bln eur.
- France Feb Trade Balance, sa increases to -3.449 bln eur (consensus -3.8 bln eur) vs previous -3.710 bln eur (revised from -3.7 bln eur).
Economic Data Ahead
- (1901 EDT/2301 GMT) UK RICS Housing Price Balance, consensus 15, previous 14
- (1930 EDT/2330 GMT) Australia Performance of Construction Index, previous 43.9
Key Events Ahead
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) Fed's Willaim Dudley speech
- (1400 EDT/1800GMT) FOMC Minutes (from meeting of March 17-18)
FX Recap
EUR/USD rose higher in Europe and trades at 1.0884 levels ignoring the Eurozone retail sales data. With no more economic releases coming from the eurozone, markets now focus on the FOMC minutes to be released tomorrow. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.0909 levels and a break above could push it to 1.0955 levels. On the flipside, support is likely to be found at 1.0803 levels and a break below could extend its losses to 1.0789 levels. Option expiries at 1.08 615m, 1.0825-35 600m, 1.09 543m, 1.0955 401m.
GBP/USD outperformed the rest in the mid-European session as the US dollar weakened across board due to expectations of dovish FOMC minutes. It currently trades at 1.4931 levels, having posted day's high at 1.4940 levels and low at 1.4804 levels. The pair remains boosted ahead of the BOE policy meeting due tomorrow. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 1.4950 above which it could extend its gains to 1.500 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.4830 (Today's Low) levels and then at 1.4800 levels. Option expiries at 1.4900 900m, 1.4930 301m, 1.4700 516m.
AUD/USD is trading near major resistance 0.7700 and any break above would extend gains till 0.7735/0.7785 in short term. On the downside minor support is around 0.7640 and break below will drag the pair further down till 0.7600/0.7570. Overall trend reversal can happen only below 0.7570. Option expiries at 0.7725 213m.
USD/CAD has taken support near 1.2425 and slightly recovered till 1.2520 from that level. Overall trend is bullish as long as support 1.2400 holds. On the downside any break below 1.2400 will take the pair further down till 1.2350. The pair's minor resistance is around 1.2520 and any break above would extend gains till 1.2579 (200 day 4HMA)/1.2650 in short term.
USD/JPY was unable to break the 120 mark and eased to 119.69 levels and currently trades at 119.76 levels. On the topside, the immediate resistance is seen at 120.32 (Today's High) levels and above which gains could be extended to 120.50 levels. On the flipside, next support is likely to be found at 119.60 levels and below that at 118.70 levels. Option expiries at 119.50 700m, 120.00 806m, 120.50 301m, 120.65 400m.
USD/CHF: Swiss Franc strengthened on better than expected Switzerland CPI figures and the pair moved south to 0.9608 levels. The pair is being weighed by broad based weakness in the greenback across board. Next resistance level is located at 0.9670 levels and beyond that at 0.9755 levels. On the other hand, support is seen at 0.9600 levels and then at 0.9577 levels. Option expiries at 0.9710-20 420m, 0.9825 500m.
