U.S. initial jobless claims rise in December end

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose at the end of 2017. Jobless claims increased by 3000 to 250k in the week ended 30 December, slightly above consensus expectations of 240k. Previous week’s claims were upwardly revised from 245k to 247k. The four-week moving average also rose modestly to 242k, a rise of 4k from the earlier week. Meanwhile, for the week ended 23 December, continuing claims dropped 37k to 1.914 million from a revised 1.951 million in the previous week. However, the decline was not sufficient to lower the four-week moving average, which rose 1000 to 1.923 million. The insured jobless rate remained at 1.4 percent.

State-wise, the claims-taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Initial claims data in Puerto Rico are reported as risking almost 8000 on the week and seem greatly responsible for the upside surprise relative to the projection, noted Barclays in a research report.

Excluding Puerto Rico, initial claims might very well have dropped on the week, as modest rises in claims recorded in Ohio, Illinois, and North Carolina would have been countered by declines in Kentucky, New York, Texas, Connecticut, and Oklahoma, among others.

“If true, then we would take little signal from this week’s rise in claims as it pertains to our outlook for employment growth and the unemployment rate; while initial claims data include information for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the household survey conducted by the Census Bureau is conducted only in the 50 states and the District of Columbia”, added Barclays.

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