US job creation probably reaccelerated in July

Several factors underpin for a pickup in US job growth. While both initial and continuing jobless claims were little changed between the two latest canvassing periods, improved hiring breadth and modestly better weather conditions in July point to an increase from the 222K positions created in June.

"The BLS is expected to report that hiring activity quickened at the beginning of the summer quarter. The government statisticians might report that non-agricultural entities added 240,000 net new workers last month, eclipsing the 221,000 average posted over the April-June span", says Societe Generale. 

Indeed, purchasing managers' reported a marked widening in hiring breadth last month, which boosted our composite Institute for Supply Management employment measure by almost six points to a decade high 58.9%. 

Meanwhile, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) Business Conditions Index improved over the five weeks leading up to the July survey, entering positive territory for the first time since last December. Although not included explicitly in the formal modeling process, the number of available positions posted online climbed by 84,000 to 5.38 million in July, reversing almost 60% of the posted prior-month decline.