U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely moderated in December, jobless rate to have stayed unchanged – TD Economics

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are likely to have moderated in December. According to a TD Economics research report, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have slowed to 170k following two straight gains north of 200k. Furthermore, payrolls are expected to have given back some of its previous strength and slowed to its current trend, at this stage of the cycle.

The current trend in payrolls is close to 175k. Meanwhile, the jobless rate is expected to have stayed at 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month with risks tilted to the downside amidst strong employment growth, stated TD Economics. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen strongly by 0.3 percent on a sequential basis.

“Calendar effects are also in our favor this month, such that a sharper gain cannot be excluded. Still, the y/y pace will be held down by base effects, and our forecast suggests an unchanged 2.5 percent rate”, added TD Economics.

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