U.S. retail sales likely rebounded in December

The U.S. retail sales are expected to have grown in December, driven by autos and gasoline. In the previous month, retail sales had weakened by rising just 0.1 percent, whereas the control group posted a similarly weak rise. According to a Societe Generale research report, the headline retail sales print might have been stimulated by strong rises in sales at gasoline stations and at auto dealers.

In December, auto sales rose 3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized level of 18.3 million units. The growth in sales might have stimulated receipts at auto dealers by about 1.5 percent in the previous month. In the meantime, seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose just over 4 percent in December, which might have given a boost for the headline retail sales, stated Societe Generale.

Stripping gasoline and autos, sales are expected to have grown around 0.4 percent. Most of the November weakness was focused in the non-store retailers category that recorded a rise of just 0.1 percent.

“We expect that the control group increased by 0.5 percent last month. If our forecast for the control group is correct, that would leave it 4.1 percent annualized above the Q3 level, a noticeable acceleration from its Q3 annualized gain of 1.1 percent”, added Societe Generale.