FXStreet reported USD/CAD near 1.4260 in early European trading Nov. 12, or C$1.4260 per US$1, as the two countries’ inflation and employment readings diverged ahead of December rate decisions.
FXStreet put the pair’s 100-day moving average at 1.4045, with support at 1.4240 and resistance at 1.4287. The outlet described its bias as positive above the average and said an AI tool helped prepare the analysis.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from September to October, following a 0.6% increase the month before. The measure excluding food and energy advanced 0.3%. The agency did not publish October’s 12-month CPI change because October 2025 survey data were unavailable after a lapse in appropriations. Reuters reported that economists in its poll had expected a 0.3% monthly increase.
In a Nov. 10 speech, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said his current view favored a 25-basis-point increase at the December meeting. He cautioned that his views did not necessarily represent the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28.
Canadian employment slipped by 4,700 in October, Statistics Canada reported, while the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.7%. Hourly pay, before seasonal adjustment, averaged C$37.89, 2.2% higher than a year earlier. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Oct. 28 and said another increase might be needed, but policymakers would proceed carefully.
Oil prices reversed direction during Nov. 12. Reuters reported that crude had fallen by more than $1 a barrel in early Asian trading, then said Brent was up 65 cents to $93.40 a barrel by 9:25 a.m. ET (14:25 UTC); U.S. West Texas Intermediate had gained 1 cent to $86.54. The Bank of Canada identifies oil prices, U.S.-dollar movements and interest-rate differences as factors that can affect the Canadian dollar. Its April outlook said the historical link between oil prices and the currency had weakened after 2015 as oil-related investment declined.
EconoTimes previously covered TD Securities’ USD/CAD outlook after U.S. and Canadian employment data diverged. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8–9, and the Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement is set for Dec. 9.
