USDCHF lost its shine on policy divergence between the Fed and the SNB. Currently trading at 0.79631, it reached an intraday low of 0.79599.
Citing sluggish job growth, increasing unemployment, and still-high inflation, the Federal Reserve delivered its third straight 25 bps rate cut, thereby lowering the target range to 3.50–3.75% while committing to keep buying short-term Treasuries to guarantee adequate bank reserves. Two doves (Goolsbee, Schmid) preferring no cut and one hawk (Kugler) pushing for a 50 bps move underlined internal differences on labor-market risks versus inflation persistence; the decision was not unanimous. Updated projections suggest slow normalisation with mean 2025 predictions of 1.7% GDP growth, 4.5% unemployment, and core PCE at 3.0%, with the policy rate seen concluding 2025 approximately 3.6% before drifting toward 3.0% longer-term; Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent strategy amidst increased volatility. Though Australia's November employment report revealed decreasing jobs but an unaltered unemployment rate, pointing to a cooling but robust labour market.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Bullishness
The pair is trading below the 55-EMA,the 200-EMA, and 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8000; any break above targets 0.80366/0.8090/0.8150/0.82180.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7955; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7920/0.7865/0.7800.
Indicators (4-hour chart)
CCI (50) - Bearish
Directional Movement Index - bearish
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8000 with SL around 0.8040 for a TP of 0.7865.
