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USD/JPY post retail sales pullback held 50% Fibo; 2-yr spreads lift

USD/JPY post retail sales pullback held 50% of 122.55-124.19 rise at 123.32, 200-HMA at 124.26 upside pivot Pullback partly due to 10-yr yield spreads falling further as Tresury curve flattened USD/JPY correlation to 2-y…

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  • USD/JPY post retail sales pullback held 50% of 122.55-124.19 rise at 123.32, 200-HMA at 124.26 upside pivot

  • Pullback partly due to 10-yr yield spreads falling further as Tresury curve flattened

  • USD/JPY correlation to 2-yr spreads is higher than 10s & prices now responding 

  • Market still tad spec top-heavy & worried about BOJ QQE2 sunset/no QQE3

  • Fed tightening prospects rising with improving US data; bullish if S&Ps rise, too

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