Visa's holiday outlook points to modest inflation-adjusted growth in U.S. retail sales, while its consumer research shows gift budgets taking priority over experiences despite broad interest in travel and live events.
In an outlook released Nov. 5, Visa put U.S. retail sales for November and December 2026 at 4.5% above the year-earlier period. The company said that pace would be the strongest for the holiday season since 2021. Its estimate covers retail and excludes travel and dining.
Price increases account for much of that nominal expansion: Visa expects holiday-related goods to cost about 3.4% more, leaving a 1.1% rise after inflation.
The outlook found that more than half of respondents included travel or live events among their top holiday wishes. Yet 27% said they would prioritize physical gifts, compared with 15% who chose experiences.
Visa estimates the average gift budget at $777, up 5.6% from $736 in 2025. Its research also found that about one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 planned to choose lower-priced brands or stores for gifts.
A separate measure suggests experience plans can include physical presents, too. Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey found that 79% of shoppers planning an experience gift also want to pair it with a physical item, a finding covered in EconoTimes' earlier holiday-spending report.
Anonymized Visa credit card data showed a split in holiday airfare activity. In September, households earning more than $200,000 increased bookings by 29% and spending by 38% year over year; lower-income groups pulled back on both.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, while airline fares climbed 22.4%. Visa said retailers could benefit if some holiday spending shifts from travel to merchandise. Michael Brown, Visa's principal U.S. economist, said, “Consumers are still spending.”
The next scheduled inflation reading is the October Consumer Price Index report, due Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
