A five-factor U.S. macro gauge put risk-asset conditions at a neutral 45 on Oct. 16, down eight points in a week as oil advanced and other market indicators diverged.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $101.91 a barrel on Oct. 14, up 7.3% from a week earlier. Brent crude was at $126.55, a 0.4% increase from $126. Compared with a year earlier, WTI was up 71.2% and Brent 100.9%.
The index’s score fell from 53 on Oct. 9. Its five inputs are U.S. M2 growth, Federal Reserve net liquidity, the dollar, market volatility and the Treasury yield curve. A higher combined score indicates conditions the index assesses as more favorable for risk assets.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 5.19% from 5.24% over the week, while the two-year yield rose to 4.82% from 4.80%. The gap between them narrowed to 0.37 percentage point from 0.44, and the yield-curve component scored 53. The VIX volatility index climbed 13.7% to 16.87 from 14.84. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.4% to 101.82 from 102.21; its component scored 33.
Federal Reserve net liquidity stood at $5.87 trillion on Oct. 14, up $7.1 billion over the week but 1.9% below its level 90 days earlier. The index gave that component a score of 18.
At $23.34 trillion in August 2026, M2 was 5.7% higher than a year earlier and 0.5% above July. The Federal Reserve publishes the measure monthly; M2 had the index’s highest component score, at 69.
The index analysis said that if oil keeps rising, inflation concerns could intensify and affect expectations for interest rates.
