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The probability of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot XRP ETF by the end of 2025 has notably increased, currently ranging between 92% and 93% on the prediction market Polymarket as of June 4, 2025. This is a significant increase from a month ago, when the probabilities were under 70%. Several reasons contribute to this spike in hope.
The favorable feeling arises from advances in regulation—chiefly, the SEC dismissing its case against Ripple in March 2025—therefore removing a major legal barrier. Additionally, several significant asset managers—Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton among them—have applied for spot XRP ETFs, suggesting significant institutional desire to introduce these products to market.
Market trust is still high even though the SEC has postponed judgments on several ETF requests, including those from CoinShares and Franklin Templeton. Rather than a sign of ultimate refusal, these delays are often seen as process-based, much as with the route taken for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals. The favorable outlook is fueled by recent events like the introduction of XRP futures on CME and Ripple's regulatory victories worldwide.
