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October month continues to prove with its repute of being a disruptive month for the markets by reminding us that the low rates of production disruptions realized over the first three-quarters of the year are an outlier rather than a new norm.
Three copper operations and one zinc mine have been forced to halt production as a result of labor disputes. October is keeping up with its reputation of being an unruly month for the markets by reminding us that the low rates of production disruptions realized over the first three-quarters of the year are an outlier rather than a new norm.
Intensified labor disputes and recent severe weather resulted in work stoppages impacting production rates over the last month. To this end, it is adjusted down the 2016 copper production estimates by almost 40 kmt to 20,171 kmt over the last month; however, it is still currently just barely above our 20,097 kmt estimate at the end of last year.
Despite this, the impact on the copper concentrate market has been fairly limited so far, with the latest levels for treatment and refining charges steady at $101.2/10.12 as of September 30, only slightly down from $102.4/10.24 two weeks earlier.
Trade recommendation: Stay short Dec’16 LME copper
While the recent macro-driven rally in base metals has disrupted the bear market, we still foresee downside to copper prices from a fundamental perspective in the coming quarters.
Cost deflation continues to sink the marginal cost support levels as the mine supply profile continues to grow despite mine closures announced last year and the weak prospects for demand this year.
Simply put, we believe prices need to move lower to induce more supply adjustments.
As such, we forecast that spot prices should dip to average $4,400/t in Q3’16.
We chose to use the early-summer rally as an opportunity to add to this position at a price of $4,904.75/t on July 28 in equal proportion to our original trade (entered at $4,625.50/t), increasing our overall breakeven to $4,765.13/t.
