Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.471% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.845% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.768% previous
•US3-Month Bill Auction 5.255% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.130% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 Japan Feb CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) -0.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb CPI (YoY) 2.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Tokyo CPI (YoY) 1.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 2.5% forecast,1.6% previous
•00:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 2.2% previous
•00:30 Japan Feb Services PMI 52.5 forecast,53.1 previous
•00:30 Australia Current Account (Q4) 4.8B forecast,-0.2B previous
•01:45 China Feb Caixin Services PMI 52.9 forecast,52.7 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•04:00 Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors kept a watchful eye on the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy meeting. The ECB meets on Thursday and is expected to keep rates at a record high 4%, but the central bank is also likely to lower its outlook for inflation in a nod to eventual cuts. In the last week, data showed euro zone inflation dipped in February, but underlying price growth proved to be sticky. Another data set showed manufacturing activity continued to contract last month. Markets now see around 90 basis points of rate cuts this year with the first move coming in June. The euro rose 0.15 % to $ 1.0856 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0883(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0793(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0729 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Monday as investors awaited UK budget later this week. Britain's upcoming Spring budget, scheduled on Wednesday ahead of an expected election this year, is drawing significant interest from investors. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt faces the challenge of striking a balance between implementing measures to boost growth while managing high public debt and inflation above target.Investors are eagerly awaiting Hunt's plan, particularly regarding anticipated tax cuts and housing stimulus measures. However, there's a concern that excessive spending could trigger inflation fears and complicating the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates, which are currently at 16-year highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2685(Feb 29th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2709(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2640(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2629(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar lost ground against the U.S. dollar on Monday, influenced by declining oil prices and investor anticipation of this week's interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada.Money markets anticipate the Canadian central bank to maintain its benchmark rate at a 22-year high of 5% on Wednesday, followed by the initiation of an easing cycle in April or June. This shift is expected as the domestic economy experiences a slowdown and inflation moderates . The price of oil, a significant export for Canada, declined as demand challenges offset the widely anticipated extension of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ producer group through the middle of the year. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.5% lower at $78.74 per barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3588 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3610 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3545 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3505 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as traders assessed cautious comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda from late last week that it was too early to conclude that the central bank's inflation target is close to being met. That contrasted with hawkish remarks from BOJ board member Hajime Takata earlier the same day, that had sent the yen to a more than two-week high of 149.21 per dollar.Markets are weighing whether the BOJ will end its negative interest policy at its March 18-19 meeting, or wait until April or later.Policy makers have repeatedly stressed the need to see continued wage growth, and the outcome of crucial spring salary negotiations will be known on March 13 for Japan's biggest firms.. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.74(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.54(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.91(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 149.40(38.2%fib )
Equities Recap
European stocks closed just shy of all-time highs on Monday, with investors absorbing robust gains from previous sessions and adopting a cautious stance ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting later in the week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.55 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.28 percent.
The S&P 500 ended Monday's trading session with a slight dip following a volatile day of trading, as investors opted be for cautious ahead of upcoming economic data releases and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.13% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.12% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.41% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday ahead of a busy week of events likely to increase market volatility, including testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. jobs data for February.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last up 4 basis points on the day at 4.217%.Two-year yields rose 7 basis points to 4.604%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to a three-month high on Monday, buoyed by rising expectations for a June interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was up 1.4% at $2,113.28 per ounce as of 02:10 p.m ET (1910 GMT), its highest since Dec. 4, when prices hit an all-time high of $2,135.40.U.S. gold futures settled about 1.5% higher at $2,126.3.
Oil prices settled slightly lower on Monday, as demand headwinds counterbalanced a widely expected extension of voluntary output cuts through the middle of the year by the OPEC+ producer group.
Brent futures settled down 75 cents to $82.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down $1.24, or 1.5%, to $78.74 a barrel.
