Market Roundup
• China says discussing with U.S. next round of trade talks
• U.S. 30-year yields rise from record lows hit on Wednesday
• U.S. GDP 2nd estimate for Q2, in line with expectations
• US Continuing Jobless Claims-1,698K, 1,680K forecast, 1,676K previous
• US Core PCE Prices 1.70%,1.80% previous
• US Corporate Profits (QoQ) Q2 5.1%,-4.1% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 2.0%,2.0% forecast, 2.1% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
• US Jul Goods Trade Balance -72.34B, -74.00B forecast, -74.16B previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 215K, 215K forecast, 211K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 214.50K, 215.00K previous
• US Real Consumer Spending Q2 4.7%, 4.3% previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3%, -0.2% previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Russia Current Account (Q2) -6.4B, -9.8B forecast, -16.6B previous
• Russia Central Bank Reserves (USD) 527.7B, 528.4B previous
• US Jul Pending Home Sales (MoM) -2.5%,0.1% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US Pending Home Sales Index 105.6, 108.3 previous
• US Natural Gas Storage 60B, 57B forecast, 59B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:45 Jul New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) -3.9% previous
• 23:30 Jul Japan Jobs/applications ratio 1.61 forecast,1.61 previous
• 23:30 Aug Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
• 23:30 Aug Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) 0.9% previous
• 23:30 Aug Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) -0.1
• 23:30 Jul Japan Unemployment Rate 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 23:30 Jul Japan Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% forecast, -3.3% previous
• 23:30 Aug Japan Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) 2.7% previous
• 23:50 Sep Japan Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) 0.6% previous
• 23:50 Jul Japan Retail Sales (YoY) -0.6%,0.5% previous
• 01:30 Jul Australia Jul Building Approvals (MoM) 0.0%, -1.2% previous
• 01:30 Jul Australia Housing Credit 0.2% previous
• 01:30 Jul Australia Private House Approvals 0.4% previous
• 01:30 Jul Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.2%, 0.4% previous
• 05:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) -4.2% previous
• 05:00 Jul Japan Housing Starts (YoY) -5.3%,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No major events are scheduled
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as greenback strengthened as news that Washington and Beijing were discussing renewing their negotiations in September eased anxieties about the ongoing trade war. The world’s two largest economies are in talks about the next round of face-to-face meetings, but the possibility of progress hinges on whether Washington can create favorable conditions, China’s commerce minister said on Thursday. He also expressed hope the United States would cancel the additional tariffs set to take effect on Sept. 1.The euro was down 0.19 percent at $1.1056. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1092 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1126 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1043 (Daily Low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined against the dollar on Thursday, after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suspended parliament for more than a month to dodge a possible no-confidence vote and take Britain out of the European Union on the Oct. 31 deadline. The move limits the time Johnson’s opponents have to prevent a disorderly Brexit. But it also increases the chances he will face a vote of no confidence and possibly an election. The queen must approve the suspension. House of Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg said on Thursday she did not question the government’s request to suspend parliament. Johnson says he wants to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU, but he also says he’s willing to take the country out of the bloc in October without a deal.The pound fell to daily low of $1.2182, down 0.20 percent on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2232 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2300 (Psychological levl).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2148 (Daily Low, a break below could take the pair towards 1.2100 (Psychological level).
USDCAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against a broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Thursday, but kept within its recent trading range ahead of domestic GDP data that could guide expectations for next week's interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada. Gross domestic product data, due on Friday, is expected to confirm that Canada's economy has rebounded after a slowdown around the turn of the year. Analysts project second-quarter growth of 3%. The price of oil was supported on Thursday by a deep draw on U.S. crude inventories. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.7% higher at $56.71 a barrel.The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3299 to the greenback.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3355 (Higher Bollinger Band), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3285 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3233 (27th Aug low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday, as traders favored the greenback currency after latest positive development in the U.S.-China trade deal. Against the greenback, the yen was 0.49% weaker at 106.63, but was on track for a 2% rise against the dollar for the month of August.The dollar was little moved by news that the U.S. economy slowed slightly more than expected in the second quarter, despite the strongest growth in consumer spending in 4-1/2 years. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.27 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.19 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 105.66 (Aug 27th low).
Equities Recap
European shares rose after a weak open on Thursday, boosted by a rally in Italian shares, with positive comments from China on its trade talks with the United States helping sentiment.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.98 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.18 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 1.51 percent.
A rise in technology shares lifted Wall Street on Thursday, as China sounded hopeful of a resolution to the long-standing trade dispute with the United States, easing investor fears of the risk of a recession.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.25 percent, S&P 500 ended up 1.27 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.48 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after two days of declines, as China and the United States said they were discussing further trade talks scheduled for September, encouraging hopes of progress in their long drawn-out conflict.
U.S. 30-year yields recovered from record lows hit during the previous session. Yields on other maturities such as benchmark 10-year notes advanced as well, as a relentless rally in Treasuries took a breather, for now.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Thursday as the dollar rose and stock markets gained confidence with the latest positive development in the U.S.-China trade deal, but concerns over decelerating global economy kept prices hemmed near a multiyear peak.
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $1,526.62 per ounce at 1:49 p.m. EDT (1749 GMT), hovering near its highest level since April 2013 at $1,554.56 on Monday. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.8% at $1,536.90 an ounce.
International benchmark Brent oil rose above the $61 a barrel mark as concerns about economic growth eased.
West Texas International (WTI) crude settled at $56.71 a barrel, up 93 cents, or 1.7%. Brent crude settled at $61.08, up 59 cents, or 0.98%.
