America's Roundup: Dollar near three-month highs against euro, Wall Street slides, Gold near six-week low, Oil rallies as Israel PM says "Iran lied" on nuclear deal-May 1st, 2018

Market Roundup

• US Mar Consumption, Adjusted MM, 0.400%, 0.400% forecast, 0.200% previous.

• US Mar Personal Consump Real MM, 0.400%, 0.000% previous.

• US Mar Personal Income MM, 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.

• US Mar Pending Homes Index, 107.6, 107.5 previous.

• US Mar Pending Sales Change MM, 0.4%, 1.0% forecast, 3.1% previous.

• US Mar Core PCE Price Index MM, 0.200%, 0.200% forecast, 0.200% previous.

• US Mar Core PCE Price Index YY, 1.900%, 1.900% forecast, 1.600% previous.

• US Mar PCE Price Index MM, 0.0%, 0.2% previous.

• US Mar PCE Price Index YY, 2.0%, 1.8% previous.

• US Mar Dallas Fed PCE, 1.5%, 1.7% previous.

• US Apr Chicago PMI, 57.6, 58.0 forecast, 57.4 previous.

• US Apr Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Index, 21.80, 21.40 previous.

• CA Mar Producer Prices MM, 0.8%, 0.7% forecast, 0.1% previous.

• CA Mar Producer Prices YY, 2.3%, 1.9% previous.

• U.S. allies, metals producers await Trump's decision on tariff exemption.

• South Korea president says Trump deserves Nobel Peace Prize.

• Weak inflation data is hurdle on ECB's way out of easy money.

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• Apr 30 22:45 New Zealand Mar Building Consents, 5.7% previous

• Apr 30 23:30 Australia Apr AIG Manufacturing Index, 63.10 previous

• May 1 00:30 Japan Apr Nikkeir Mfg PMI, 53.3 previous

• May 1 04:30 Australia RBA Cash Rate, 1.50% forecast, 1.50% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• N/A Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts its two-day meeting on interest rate in Washington, D.C.

• 18:45 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz will give speech at Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce in Yellowknife, Canada

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.2052 levels and currently trading at 1.2074 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.2117 and hit lows at 1.2063 levels. Euro declined against the dollar on Monday as weaker-than-expected German data hurt the single currency. German monthly retail sales unexpectedly dropped in March, dampening cheer around a consumer-led upswing in Europe's biggest economy. Regional data showed annual inflation in four German states steady in April. The dollar index rose 0.25 percent to 91.768, but held below Friday's high of 91.986, its strongest level since Jan. 11.The dollar last week enjoyed its biggest weekly gain in more than two months. The euro dropped 0.31 percent to $1.2076, not far from its three-month lows last week of $1.2110.U.S. data on Monday showed that U.S. consumer prices accelerated in the year to March, with a measure of underlying inflation surging to near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target as weak readings from last year dropped out of the calculation. Fed officials had anticipated the rise in the annual inflation measures reported by the Commerce Department on Monday, so it was not expected to alter the U.S. central bank's gradual pace of interest rate increases. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates when it concludes its two-day meeting this Wednesday though investors will be watching for indications that a rate hike is likely in June.

GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.3708 levels and currently trading at 1.3753 levels. It reached session high at 1.3792 and dropped to session low at 1.3710 levels. The British slipped lower against the greenback on Monday as investors rapidly unwound their bullish bets on the currency following weak economic growth data and recent comments from the Bank of England that have led traders to reduce their bets on a rate hike next week. The British currency fell 0.3 percent on Monday, taking its losses to nearly 4.5 percent since hitting a post-Brexit referendum high of $1.4377 on April 17. Though overall positions remained within striking distance of a four-year high hit last week, the magnitude of the drop in weekly positions meant more pain was in store for the pound as expectations of a 25 basis-point hike at a policy meeting by the Bank of England have broadly disappeared. For the month, sterling is down nearly 2 percent. Economic data and comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney were the two major reasons behind the latest washout in positions. Against the euro, sterling was 0.1 percent weaker at 88.12 pence in a data heavy week. A raft of PMI data is due this week on various sectors including manufacturing and construction.

USD/CAD is supported at 1.2772 levels and is trading at 1.2841 levels. It has made session high at 1.2862 and lows at 1.2802 levels. The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices fell and the greenback broadly rose. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, dipped after a rising rig count in the United States pointed to higher production there. U.S. crude prices were down 1.1 percent at $67.34 a barrel. The U.S. dollar climbed against a basket of major currencies as weaker-than-expected German retail sales knocked euro zone sentiment. The loonie hit a three-week low intraday on Friday at C$1.2900, pressured by recent comments from the Bank of Canada that were seen as dovish, and as the rise in U.S. Treasury yields boosted the greenback. On the data front, Canadian producer prices increased by 0.8 percent in March from February on higher prices of energy and petroleum products as well as paper and pulp, Statistics Canada said on Monday. Canadian gross domestic product data for February is due on Tuesday and March trade data is due on Thursday. The Canadian dollar was last trading 0.1 percent lower at C$1.2837 to the greenback. The currency traded in a range of C$1.2798 to C$1.2876.

AUD/USD is supported around 0.7500 levels and currently trading at 0.7525 levels. It hit session high at 0.7585 and made session lows at 0.7524 levels. The Australian dollar dipped against dollar on Monday as high yields in the United States and low rates at home combined with concerns about global growth weighed on Australian dollar. The Aussie dollar was down 0.2 percent at $0.7526. It lost 1 percent last week and was threatening major chart support at $0.7501, a trough from last December. A break above $0.7650 would be needed to turn around the recent bearish trend. Australian dollar has lost ground to a firmer U.S. dollar in recent weeks as U.S. economic data tended to top expectations while domestic and European figures have been lagging. There is much speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could trim its forecast for economic growth this week, even as it nudges up the outlook for inflation. The central bank holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday and is considered certain to hold rates at 1.5 percent, where they have been since August 2016. It will also update its economic forecasts in a quarterly policy statement on Friday and might temper its optimism for this year after a disappointing end to 2017. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates at least twice more this year alone and the divergence is pushing Treasury yields above those in Australia.

Equities Recap

A multi-billion pound merger between British supermarket Sainsbury's and Asda shook up retail stocks on Monday while European benchmarks ended April with their strongest monthly gains since 2016.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up 0.1 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.2 percent and France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.6 percent.

Wall Street dipped on Monday, reversing gains from earlier in the session, weighed down by healthcare stocks, while surging oil prices added to worries about rising costs for companies.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.58 percent, S&P 500 ended down 0.80 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.73 percent.

Treasuries Recap 

The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened on Monday for a third straight session, as a slew of data that missed expectations rekindled concerns about signs of slowing growth in the world's largest economy.

The U.S. 10-year yields slipped to 2.936 percent from 2.957 percent late on Friday, touching a 10-day low of 2.934 percent.
U.S. 30-year yields also dipped to 3.099 percent from Friday's 3.125 percent. Earlier, 30-year yields fell to 3.095 percent, also a 10-day trough.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices fell to the lowest in nearly six weeks on Monday as the dollar strengthened and easing tensions on the Korean peninsula helped boost appetite for higher risk assets such as stocks.

Spot gold lost 0.3 percent at $1,318.14 per ounce by 1:34 p.m. EDT (1734 GMT), off an earlier $1,310.11 low, its weakest since March 21. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled down $4.20, or 0.3 percent, at $1,319.20 per ounce.

Oil prices rose on Monday, bouncing off early losses as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had proof that "Iran lied" about its nuclear weapons capability, and that he was sure U.S. President Donald Trump would do "the right thing" in reviewing the country's nuclear deal with western powers.

Prices of the Brent June contract , which expires Monday, gained 53 cents to settle at $75.17 a barrel. Prices for the more actively traded Brent July contact  gained 90 cents to settle at $74.69.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures  were up 47 cents on the day to settle at $68.57 a barrel.

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