Market Roundup
•UK Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 0.8%, -0.4% previous
•UK Mar Core Retail Sales (YoY) 0.4%,-0.5% previous
•UK Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,0.2% previous
•German Mar PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.0% forecast,-0.4% previous
•German Mar PPI (YoY) -2.9% ,-4.1% previous
•UK Mar Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%,0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 506 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 617 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:15 UK BoE Breeden Speaks
•14:15 UK MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
•14:30 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•16:30 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher as dollar gained on Friday as gains were driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East conflict, which unnerved investors. The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran also fuelled concerns that a spike in commodity prices could rekindle inflation and delay the European Central Bank's highly anticipated interest rate cut in June. On the data front,German producer prices fell less than expected in March, decreasing by 2.9% on the year, the federal statistics office reported on Friday.Analysts polled had expected a 3.2% decline.The office publishes more detailed data on its website. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0711(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0614 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0554 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling initially dipped against the dollar on Friday but recovered ground as investors responded to reports of an Israeli attack on Iran.People familiar with the matter told Reuters that Israel attacked Iran, days after Iran launched an unprecedented assault on Israel in response to a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria. Safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc, yen and dollar initially spiked on the news, helping push down the pound and the euro. Yet the market reaction later unwound somewhat after Iran played the incident down and said it did not plan a new response. Sterling was last up very slightly at $1.2446, after dropping to $1.2388.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2462(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2516(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2392(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2375(Dec 12th low).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors rushed into safe-haven currencies after reports said Israel had attacked Iran in the latest tit-for-tat exchange between the two adversaries. Markets initially reacted sharply to the news, which sparked a sell-off in risk assets, caused oil and gold prices to jump, and ignited a rally in U.S. Treasuries and safe-haven currencies.The Swiss franc , valued at times of stress for its stability, jumped more than 1% as the first reports came in to hit 0.9011 per dollar, its highest in two weeks.It then pared its gains, and was up around 0.5% at 0.9079 to the dollar as markets retraced some of their initial reaction after a relatively subdued response from Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9138(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9077 (SMA 14), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9025(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Friday after reports of Israeli attack on Iran spark rush to Swiss franc and yen, stoking concerns about a potential broader regional conflict. Israel's attack on Iranian soil was the latest tit-for-tat exchange between the two arch foes, sending safe haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc higher and putting gold on track for its fifth week of gains. The yen was last unchanged at 154.58 per dollar, after having rallied more than 0.6% in reaction to reports of the attack. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank may raise interest rates again if the yen's declines significantly push up inflation, highlighting the impact currency moves may have on the timing of the next policy shift. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.68(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.72 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 152.78 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks dropped to their lowest levels in more than one month on Friday after a ramp-up in the Middle East conflict spooked investors, while L'Oreal's shares rose as the French cosmetic giant's quarterly sales trounced estimates.
At (GMT 12:21),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday and were poised for a fifth straight week of gains, as investors rushed to the safe-haven asset as escalating tensions between Iran and Israel fuelled fears of a wider regional conflict.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,380.68 per ounce as of 1040 GMT, after rising to as high as $2,417.59 earlier in the session. Prices were up over 1% this week.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% at $2,396.60.
Oil slipped on Friday after prices spiked earlier on reports that Israel had attacked Iran as market fears of a major escalation to hostilities in the Mideast appeared to ease.
After the benchmark contracts jumped more than $3 in the session, Brent futures were down 46 cents, or 0.5%, at $86.65 a barrel by 1015 GMT. The most active U.S. West Texas Intermediate contract was down 34 cents, or 0.4%, to $82.39.
