Market Roundup
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q4) 3.3% ,3.0% forecast,3.1% previous
•Canada Jan Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 3.90%, 4.66% previous
•GDP Sales (Q4) 3.9% ,3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4) 3.9% ,3.7% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 3.4% ,3.2% forecast,4.9% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q4) 1.8% ,1.8% forecast,2.6% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.00% ,2.10% forecast,2.00% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 1.7% ,1.6% forecast,3.3% previous
•Canada Jan GDP (MoM) 0.6% ,0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 210K , 212K forecast,210K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims1,819K, 1,807K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 211.00K ,211.25K previous
•US Mar Chicago PMI41.4, 45.9 forecast,44.0 previous
•US Mar Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% , 3.0% forecast,3.0% previous
• US Feb Pending Home Sales Index75.6, 74.3 previous
• US Mar Michigan Consumer Sentiment 79.4 ,76.5 forecast,76.9 previous
• US Mar Michigan Current Conditions 82.5, 79.4 forecast,79.4 previous
•1 US Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations 77.4 , 74.6 forecast,75.2 previous
• US Feb Pending Home Sales (MoM) 1.6% ,1.4% forecast,-4.9% previous
• US Mar Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8% ,2.9% forecast,2.9% previous
• US Mar KC Fed Composite Index -7 ,-4 previous
• US Mar KC Fed Manufacturing Index -9 , 3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Mar CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.3% previous
•23:30 Japan Mar CPI (YoY) 2.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Mar Unemployment Rate 2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Jobs/applications ratio 1.27 forecast,1.27 previous
•23:30 Japan Mar Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 2.4% forecast ,2.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Feb Housing Credit 0.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Feb Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Thursday as German retail sales fel unexpectedly in February. German retail sales unexpectedly fell in February, data showed on Thursday, quashing hopes that private consumption could help Europe's largest economy to recover in the first quarter.Retail sales decreased by 1.9% compared with the previous month in real terms. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.3% increase in February. Food retail sales fell by 1.7% in real terms compared to January. Non-food business fell by 1.0%, while internet and mail order sales saw a month-on-month real sales decline of 2.8%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0829(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0852 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0775(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0736(Feb 16th low).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Thursday after data confirmed the UK economy entered recession in the second half of last year and as the dollar put on a display of broad-based strength as the month and the quarter end. UK gross domestic product shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from preliminary estimates, the Office for National Statistics said.Markets had already factored in a mild recession late last year and the numbers did not trigger an outsized reaction in the pound, or have any impact on expectations for monetary policy. Sterling was last down 0.2%, but was still on course for a 0.2% gain this week against the dollar, ahead of key U.S. inflation data on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2741(March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2603 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2563(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, clawing back some recent declines, as faster-than-expected growth in the domestic economy reduced pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in the coming months. Adding to support for the loonie, the price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, settled 2.2% higher at $83.17 a barrel as investors weighed prospects of tighter oil supplies. Canada's gross domestic product increased 0.6% in January from December, its fastest growth rate in a year, led by a bounce back in education services as public sector strikes ended in Quebec. A preliminary estimate for February showed growth of 0.4%.The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3535 to the U.S. dollar after trading in a range of 1.3526 to 1.3613. Last Friday, it touched a three-month low at 1.3614 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3558 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3617 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3499(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3451 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday as investors hesitated take position on the pair on fears of Japanese intervention. The dollar was steady at 151.40 per yen having traded just shy of the 152 mark at its highest since 1990 on Wednesday before Japan's top monetary officials suggested they were ready to intervene to prevent further declines. Japanese authorities held a meeting on Wednesday on the currency's weakness and ramped up their verbal warnings, putting the market on the lookout for any signs that words are being backed up with action.Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022, selling the dollar to buy yen, first in September and again in October as the yen slid towards a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's shares closed at a record high on Thursday, finishing its second-straight quarter in gains, with retailer JD Sports notching its strongest day in over four years after reiterating its annual profit forecast.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.15 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.01 percent.
U.S. stocks were higher on Wednesday, with the Dow leading gains and the S&P 500 setting a closing record, paced drugmaker Merck, while investors looked towards the next piece of inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for signals on the rate path.
Dow Jones closed higher by 0.12 percent, S&P 500 closed up 0.11 percent, Nasdaq closed down by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Thursday, bound for its biggest monthly rise since November 2022 after a blistering rally fuelled by bets for U.S. interest rate cuts, strong safe-haven demand and central bank buying.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,212.47 per ounce, on track for a monthly gain of over 8%, and a second straight quarterly rise. U.S. gold futures edged 0.9% higher to $2,232.60.
Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel on Thursday, closing out the month higher on the prospect of OPEC+ staying the course on production cuts, ongoing attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure and a falling U.S. rig count tightening crude supplies.
Brent crude futures for May settled at $87.48 a barrel, its highest level since Oct. 27, after gaining $1.39, or 1.6%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May delivery settled at $83.17 a barrel, rising $1.82, or 2.2%.
