America’s Roundup: Dollar soft, euro, sterling hit new highs,Wall Street ends mixed, Gold climbs, Oil retreats 
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Nov) 51.4, 51.2 previous
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 1.2%, 0.2% previous
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 1.6%, 0.8% previous
•Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Oct) 3.3%, 2.5% previous
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 1.5%,1.4%forecast,2.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 UK Construction Output (MoM) (Oct): -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 07:00 UK Construction Output (YoY) (Oct): 1.6% forecast, 1.3% previous
• 07:00 UK GDP (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 07:00 UK GDP (YoY) (Oct): 1.4% forecast, 1.1% previous
• 07:00 UK Index of Services (Oct): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 07:00 UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): -1.2% forecast, -2.5% previous
• 07:00 UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 0.9% forecast, -2.0% previous
• 07:00 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): 1.1% forecast, -1.7% previous
• 07:00 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct): -0.1% forecast, -2.2% previous
• 07:00 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct): 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 07:00 UK Trade Balance (Oct): -19.10B forecast, -18.88B previous
• 07:00 UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Oct): -6.82B previous
•07:00 German CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 07:00 German CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 07:00 German HICP (MoM) (Nov): -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 07:45 French CPI NSA (MoM) (Nov): -0.10% previous
•07:45 French CPI NSA (YoY) (Nov): 0.90% previous
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Nov): 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
•07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Nov): -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Nov): 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 10:00 ECOFIN Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Friday as markets continued to digest less-hawkish-than-expected comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following a widely anticipated quarter-point rate cut. Investors remain uncertain about the path of U.S. monetary policy next year, with inflation trends and labor market conditions still unclear. Traders are currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, in contrast to Fed policymakers’ projections of one cut next year and another in 2027.In Europe, Germany’s final inflation data for November is due from Destatis, following a preliminary estimate that showed consumer price inflation steady at 2.3%. Meanwhile, France’s INSEE releases its final inflation figures, with the flash estimate indicating inflation remained unchanged at 0.9% in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1752(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1791(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1670(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1618(SMA20).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Friday as investors looked ahead to the UK’s October GDP data for signs of the economy’s health. The Office for National Statistics is set to release figures on GDP, industrial production, and foreign trade. The economy is forecast to grow 0.1% in October, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in September. Meanwhile, the trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to GBP 19.1 billion, up from GBP 18.8 billion the previous month. Market expectations also indicate an approximately 86% probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its upcoming meeting on December 19. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3423(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3524(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3368(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3282(Dec 10th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near a three-month high on Friday as investors increasingly wagered that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates. The currency pair shrugged off Thursday’s weaker-than-expected Australian jobs data and is now targeting its 2025 high. Market expectations put the probability of a 25-basis-point increase in the RBA’s 3.6% cash rate at 18% for February, rising to 70% for May, while a move in August is almost fully priced in. Attention is now turning to the fourth-quarter consumer price report due on January 28, with analysts warning that core inflation could exceed 3%, the upper bound of the RBA’s 2%–3% target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6692(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6713(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6556(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar inched higher on Friday, but gains were limited amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. The BoJ is widely anticipated to resume its cycle of rate increases after months of pausing to assess the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff measures. With the current rate move already fully priced in, market attention is now focused on any guidance regarding the pace of future hikes and the likely peak of this tightening cycle. BoJ Governor Ueda gave an unusually direct speech earlier this month, clearly signaling a rate increase at the upcoming meeting. In a December 2–9 survey, 90% of economists (63 out of 70) predicted that the BoJ would raise short-term rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at next week’s policy meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.58 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.44 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.55(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose on Friday, building on Wall Street’s overnight gains, though a renewed drop in Oracle’s share price rattled the tech sector.
Japan’s, Nikkei 225 was up 1.46%, South Korea’s KOSPI was up 1.32%,Hang Seng was up 1.78 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held near a seven-week high on Friday, supported by expectations of more interest rate cuts next year after the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed back against hawkish market bets, while silver hovered just below Thursday's record peak.
Spot gold dipped 0.3% to $4,270.89 per ounce by 0524 GMT, but was on track for a 1.8% weekly gain after hitting its highest since October 21 on Thursday.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, supported by concerns over potential Venezuelan supply disruptions, but were still set for a weekly decline amid cautious sentiment and optimism about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.70%, to $61.71 a barrel by 0352 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.03 a barrel, up 43 cents, or 0.75%.
