Market Roundup
- China March factory activity grows for first time in 4 months, but exports weak.
- China manufacturing returns to growth in March - Caixin PMI.
- China will continue to suspend extra tariffs on US vehicles, auto parts.
- Japan's business confidence hits 2-year low as trade war stings.
- Japan March 2019 Nikkei manufacturing PMI increase to 49.2 vs previous 48.9.
- Japan Q1 2019 Tankan big non - manufacturing index decrease to 21 (forecast 22 ) vs previous 24.
- Japan Q1 2019 Tankan big manufacturing index decrease to 12 (forecast 14 ) vs previous 19.
- Brexit in meltdown - Theresa May under pressure to forge softer divorce deal.
- ECB's hawkish Knot makes dovish sounds on rates long-term.
- Erdogan loses hold over Turkish capital, Istanbul disputed.
- Australian business conditions bounce but confidence sags.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany March Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, 44.7 forecast, 44.7 previous.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) EZ Mar Markit manufacturing Final PMI, 47.6 forecast, 47.6 previous.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Mar Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, 51.0 forecast, 52.0 previous.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ Mar HICP Flash YY, 1.5% forecast, 1.5% previous.
Key Events Ahead
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) ECB's Luis de Guindos presents the ECB's annual report for 2018 in Brussels.
- (1510 ET/1910 GMT) BoC's Stephen Poloz speaks at Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce and Nunavut Mining Symposium in Iqaluit.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was down a little at 97.19.
EUR/USD: The euro struggled near a three-week low of $1.1210 brushed on Friday. The single currency was last trading up 0.1 percent at $1.1232. It made intraday high at $1.1235 and low at $1.1220 mark. A consistent close below $1.1217 will drag the parity down towards key supports around $1.1080 levels. Alternatively, reversal from key support will drag the parity higher towards key resistances around $1.1390, $1.1472, $1.1550, $1.1620 and $1.1820 marks respectively.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen trades almost flat after Tankan manufacturing as well as non manufacturing PMI data. It made intraday high at 111.18 and low at 110.87 levels. A sustained close above 110.85 is required to take the parity higher towards key resistances around 111.40, 112.60 and 113.98 marks respectively. Alternatively, a daily close below 110.85 will drag the parity down towards key support around 109.70, 107.50 and 104.20 marks respectively.
GBP/USD: The Sterling was a shade lower at $1.3032, within sight of Friday's near-three-week lows of $1.2977 and not far from last month's low of $1.2945. Britain's exit from the European Union was in disarray after the defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal left her under pressure from rival factions to leave without a deal, go for an election or forge a much softer divorce. Pair made intraday high at $1.3056 and low at $1.3009 mark. A sustained close below $1.3034 requires for dragging the parity down towards key support around $1.2857 mark. On the other side, key resistances are seen at $1.3187, $1.3215, $1.3362 and $1.3490 levels respectively.
AUD/USD: The Aussie crept to $0.7122, and away from last week's low of $0.7063, but faces stiff resistance around $0.7145/50.The pair made intraday high at $0.7127 and low at $0.7103 levels. A consistent close above $0.7140 requires for upside rally.
NZD/USD: The kiwi dollar reached $0.6826, up from a trough of $0.6774 last week. It faces its next test at $0.6834. A sustained close below $0.6805 requires for the downside rally. Alternatively, key resistance was seen at $0.6885 mark.
Equities Recap
Tokyo's Nikkei was trading 1.51 pct higher at 21,526.66 points.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was trading 0.53 pct higher at 6,213.58 points.
Shanghai composite index up over 2 pct and China's CSI300 index to open up 0.7 pct at 3,901.17 points.
Taiwanese stock was trading around 0.30 percent higher at 10,672.45 points.
Hong Kong’s Hang seng was trading 1.78 pct higher at 29,569.25 points.
South Korea’s Kospi was trading 1.22 percent higher at 2,166.55 points.
India’s NSE Nifty was trading around 0.72 percent higher at 11,704.58 points while BSE Sensex was trading 0.82 points higher at 38,990.55 points.
India's BSE index hits record high, rises 0.8 pct to 38,993.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Monday, adding to gains in the first quarter when the major benchmarks posted their biggest increases in nearly a decade, as concerns about supplies outweigh fears of a slowing global economy. Brent crude for June delivery was up by 43 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $68.01 a barrel by 0214 GMT, having risen 27 percent in the first quarter. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $60.46 barrel, after posting a rise of 32 percent in the January-March period.
Gold prices inched down on Monday as investor appetite for riskier assets improved on signs of progress in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and better-than-expected Chinese economic data. Spot gold slipped 0.1 percent to $1,290.98 per ounce by 0057 GMT, after touching its lowest since March 8 at $1,286.35 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,294.90 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
In the debt market, the three-year bond future slipped 3 ticks to 98.625 but that follows weeks of gains that took the contract to record highs. The 10-year contract eased 4 ticks to 98.1850.
Yields on New Zealand government bonds edged up around 2 basis points.
