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Briferendum Series: How to gauge upcoming results to avoid unnecessary volatility spikes

Counting will begin as soon as the voting ends at 21:00 GMT today and results will start appearing from 382 counting areas which will then be collated to regional results and will finally get combined together for a national outcome.

Since results will start coming out within hours after the end of the poll, there could be unnecessary swings in the market and there could also be an indication early enough to which side will prevail finally.

According to Reuters, one of the first results will be from Sunderland, which is likely to provide a lead for the exiteers and market might react to that, so one needs to separate the directional volatility from a misguided one. Now if exiteers fail to gain in Sunderland or in Castle Point or in Southend-on-Sea that should be considered a major victory for the “Remain”. Results for the latter two will come around 1:30 GMT and 2:00 GMT on 24th of June.

Similarly any result from Scotland, which will start coming as early as 00:30 GMT on 24th June if points that exit camp is leading that could mean danger since Scotland was largely expected to vote to stay with a bigger margin.

End outcome will largely get finalized by 3-4:00 GMT and unlikely to deviate much from there as the large regions will be covered by then.

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