Market Roundup
• French Mar Manufacturing PMI 45.8 ,47.5 forecast,47.1 previous
• French Mar French S&P Global Composite PMI 47.7, 48.6 forecast,48.1 previous
• French Mar French Services PMI 47.8, 48.8 forecast,48.4 previous
• SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1)1.50%, 1.75% forecast,1.75% previous
• German Mar Manufacturing PMI 41.6, 43.1 forecast,42.5 previous
• German Mar German Services PMI 49.8,48.8 forecast,48.3 previous
• EU Mar Services PMI 51.1,50.5 forecast,50.2 previous
• EU Mar Manufacturing PMI 45.7,47.0 forecast, 46.5 previous
• EU Mar S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9,49.7 forecast,49.2 previous
•UK Composite PMI 52.9,53.1 forecast, 53.0 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 49.9,47.9 forecast,47.5 previous
•UK Services PMI 53.4,53.8 forecast,53.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Mar Philly Fed Business Conditions 7.2 previous
•12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid 16.60 previous
•12:30 US Mar Philly Fed New Orders -5.2 previous
•12:30 US Mar Philly Fed Employment -10.3 previous
•12:30 US Mar Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -2.6 forecast,5.2 previous
•12:30 US Current Account (Q4) -209.0B forecast,-200.3B previous
•12:30 US Mar Philly Fed CAPEX Index 12.70 previous
•12:30 Canada Feb New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 212K forecast,209K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,811K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.208.00K previous
•13:45 US Mar Manufacturing PMI 51.8 forecast,52.2 previous
•13:45 US Mar Services PMI 52.0 forecast,52.3 previous
•13:45 US Mar S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 previous
•14:00 US Feb Existing Home Sales 3.95M forecast,4.00M previous
•14:00 US Feb Existing Home Sales (MoM) 3.1% previous
•14:00 US Feb US Leading Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,542B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Thursday ahead of a day packed with central bank decisions. On the data front, French business activity shrank for a tenth consecutive month in March, while Germany's economic downturn eased slightly as business activity in the country’s service sector came close to stabilising.Business activity in the overall euro zone rose to 49.9 this month from February's 49.2, within a whisker of returning to growth, as inflationary pressures bucked a recent trend and eased.All eyes will now be on March business activity data for the United States, due later in the day, which could offer potential clues into the interest rate cut cycle. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0965 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0972(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0889 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0830(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against dollar on Thursday as focus to the Bank of England's monetary policy update. BoE's interest rate decision, due at 1200 GMT, where it is widely expected to hold rates at 5.25%, a day after data showed inflation fell to its lowest in almost two-and-a-half years.A Reuters poll expects the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee vote to split three ways for the second consecutive time, while traders are pricing in around 72 basis points of rate cuts from the central bank this year. Sterling was last down on the day at $1.2745. It has risen 1.3% so far this month and is heading for its largest monthly gain against the dollar since November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2805(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2857(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2734(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2669(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut interest rates. The SNB cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, a surprise move which made it the first major central bank to dial back tighter monetary policy aimed at tackling inflation.A majority of analysts polled by Reuters had expected the SNB to keep rates on hold at 1.75%. It was also the first rate cut by the SNB in nine years. The euro climbed against the Swiss franc to 0.978, the most since July 2023. It was last up 0.7% to 0.975. Against the dollar, the Swiss franc fell 0.9% to 0.8948, after briefly hitting its lowest since November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8978(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8886(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8913 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8844(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped but recovered ground against the yen on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its projections for three interest rate cuts for this year. On Tuesday the Bank of Japan ditched negative interest rates and raised rates for the first time in 17 years, while on Wednesday the Federal Reserve maintained its view that U.S. interest rates would likely be subject to three cuts this year.Traders are attaching a strong chance of the first Fed cut coming in June and rates are expected to end the year around 4.50%, down from a range of 5.25-5.50% now. The yen was last 0.1% higher on the day at 151.12. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.55 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.98(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.18 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.52 (Feb 20th low).
Equities Recap
European shares scaled record-high levels on Thursday, boosted by basic resources-linked stocks and a strong risk appetite, ahead of a day packed with central bank decisions.
At (GMT 12:00),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices on Thursday hit record highs for the fifth time this month after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would press ahead with three rate cuts in 2024 despite elevated inflation.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $2,209.65 per ounce at 1035 GMT after hitting an all-time high of $2,222.39 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures soared 2.4% to $2,212.40.
Oil prices were broadly steady on Thursday, as a surprise U.S. crude stock drop and the U.S. Federal Reserve sticking to its outlook on rate cuts for the year offered support.
Brent crude futures for May were down 3 cents to $85.92 a barrel by 0929 GMT. They fell by 1.6% on Wednesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May were down 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $81.17 a barrel after a fall of about 1.8% in the previous session.
