Market Roundup
•French Feb Exports 51.1B,48.8B previous
• French Feb Trade Balance -5.2B,-7.0B forecast,-7.4B previous
• French Feb Imports 56.3B,56.2B previous
• French Feb Current Account 0.90B,-1.00B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.2% previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 44.2 forecast,43.5 previous
•17:00 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.256% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:30 SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against weaker dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the week. The ECB's current stance is to maintain interest rates this week, with a potential leaning towards considering a rate cut in June. Despite growing confidence within the ECB regarding inflation's trajectory back to the 2% target, it has been relatively non-specific regarding additional easing measures. On the data front, ECB survey showed lenders lowered the bar on mortgage approvals last quarter for the first time in over two years, but demand for credit kept falling amid high borrowing costs and a stagnant economy. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0869. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0874(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0903(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0845 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0824 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors braced for crucial U.S. and UK economic data for clues on the interest rate trajectory. Markets await British gross domestic product figures due on Friday after data from starting salaries for permanent staff added to signs of a slowdown in the job market and the British Retail Consortium said an early Easter boosted food spending in Britain last month. Before GDP data, sterling will focus on events outside the UK, including Wednesday's U.S. inflation figures and Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting. The pound rose 0.1% to $1.2668 versus the dollar which struggled for direction amid caution ahead of Wednesday's data.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2692(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2764 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2653(5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2627(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of inflation data due on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar ended last week lower as traders digested mixed economic data, including an unexpected slowdown in U.S. services expansion and U.S. job growth exceeding expectations. U.S. consumer price inflation for March on Wednesday will provide further clues about the Fed policy path.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday, after jobs data, argued against any imminent push toward easier monetary policy, while Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday the Fed must weigh how much longer it can maintain its current rate stance without damaging the economy. Some analysts said geopolitical risk might increase demand for safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9090(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9141 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9033(5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8689 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Tuesday but gains were limited as threat of intervention has kept the pair from breaching the closely watched 152 yen level. The U.S. dollar added 0.02% to 151.94 yen , holding near a 34-year high of 151.975 yen hit last month as Japanese officials continued trying to talk up the currency. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank must consider whittling down stimulus further if inflation continues to accelerate, signalling the chance of another interest rate hike later this year in line with market bets.Speaking in parliament, Ueda said the central bank must maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being since trend inflation has yet to reach its 2% target.Strong resistance can be seen at 152.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.26(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.13 (April 4th low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.43(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday ahead of this week's U.S. inflation data and a European Central Bank monetary policy decision, while diagnostics firm Biomerieux was set for its best day in more than two years on a new strategic plan.
At (GMT 12:45 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.53 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.31 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record high for an eighth consecutive session on Tuesday with support from momentum-following funds and inflated geopolitical tensions.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $2,363.42 per ounce by 0936 GMT after hitting a record high of $2,365.09.
Oil prices stabilised on Tuesday as prices ticked higher amid fading hopes that negotiations between Israel and Hamas would produce a ceasefire in Gaza.
Brent crude futures edged up 6 cents, or 0.07%, to $90.44 per barrel by 1156 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 2 cents or 0.02% at $86.41.
