Market Roundup
• Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 3.6%, 2.3% previous
•Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Feb) 4.71B, 0.37B previous
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb) 4.0%, 3.8%forecast, 3.6% previous
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (Feb) 16,858.7B,16,754.9B previous
•Eurozone Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Feb) 2.2%,2.0% previous
•Eurozone Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Feb) 1.5%,1.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K forecast, 1,892K previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.70% forecast, 2.20% previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4) -0.4% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3%forecast, 3.1% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.4% forecast, 1.9% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q4) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
•12:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Feb) -134.60B forecast, -155.57B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 225Kforecast, 223K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 227.00K previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q4) 2.4%forecast, 1.5% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q4) 4.2%forecast, 3.7% previous
•12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb) 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Feb) 0.7%forecast, 0.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jan) 5.81% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.9% forcast, -4.6% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales Index (Feb) 70.6 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 37B forecast,9B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Mar) -5 previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) -13 previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.215% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.215% previous
•17:00 US 7-Year Note Auction 4.194% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 13:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•17:4 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•18:05 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•20:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speak
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro recovered from three- week low against the dollar on Thursday as markets absorbed Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect next week.Currency markets reacted mildly to the tariffs, with most volatility seen in automaker stocks. Traders remained uncertain about whether the news would weigh more on the dollar or U.S. trading partners. Investor focus will now be on the reciprocal tariffs due to be announced next week. Trump indicated the measures may not be the like-for-like levies he has been pledging to impose.Investors worry that the trade duties will dent U.S. growth and stoke inflation, although the prospect of narrower-than-feared tariffs has buoyed sentiment recentl. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0958(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday as traders assessed the spring statement from finance minister Rachel Reeves. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced welfare budget cuts and other spending reductions to stay on track for a key fiscal target aimed at reassuring investors after Liz Truss’s 2022 market turmoil.However, the independent fiscal watchdog warned that a global trade war could hit economic output, while rising Bank of England interest rates and gilt yields could erode Reeves' limited fiscal headroom.Investor focus will now be on the reciprocal tariffs due to be announced next week. Trump indicated the measures may not be the like-for-like levies he has been pledging to impose. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, further escalating global trade tensions. The tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, have heightened investor concerns, with markets awaiting further details on additional trade measures Trump plans to implement next week.Meanwhile, attention shifts to Friday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which could provide key insights into the central bank’s future monetary policy decisions.At GMT 12:11, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.28 % to $0.6316. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6358(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6383(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Thursday as Japanese yen weakened in response to U.S. plans for a 25% tariff on vehicles not built in the United States.. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, a move expected to drive up prices, hamper production, and significantly impact Japan's auto sector. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said all options were on the table in response to the U.S. tariffs. Canada said it could impose retaliatory duties, while the European Union expressed regret but was seeking negotiated solutions. Analysts have warned Trump's tariff plans could stoke U.S. inflation, with the Federal Reserve already pausing its policy easing cycle. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.68(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped to a two-week low on Thursday, dragged down by auto stocks, as Trump’s plan for 25% import tariffs on vehicles and foreign-made auto parts raised fears of a global economic slowdown.
At GMT (13:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.77 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.00 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged toward last week's record high on Thursday as Trump's new auto import tariffs, set to take effect next week, intensified global trade tensions and boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold had jumped more than 1% to $3,052.97 an ounce as of 1030 GMT, just a few dollars away from the all-time high of $3,057.21 hit on March 20. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.3% to $3,060.90.
Oil prices held steady on Thursday as markets weighed the impact of new U.S. tariffs, while ongoing global supply concerns kept prices near one-month highs.
