Europe Roundup: Sterling gains against dollar , European shares climb, Gold edges up, Oil rises on supply concerns-March 25th,2025

Market Roundup

• German Business Expectations (Mar) 87.7, 87.9 forecast, 85.6 previous

•German Current Assessment (Mar) 85.7, 85.5 forecast, 85.0 previous

•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) 86.7, 86.8 forecast, 85.3 previous

•UK GBP 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 5.232%, 4.836% previous

•German 5-Year Bobl Auction 2.440%, 2.150% previous

•UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar) -41, -28 forecast, -23 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT

• 12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Feb) 1.7% previous

• 12:55 US  Redbook (YoY) 5.2% previous

• 13:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 4.7% previous

• 13:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous

• 13:00 US House Price Index (Jan) 436.1 previous

• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jan) 0.5% previous

• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous

• 13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jan) 4.6% forecast, 4.5% previous

•14:00 US  CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) 94.2 forecast, 98.3 previous

•14:00 US New Home Sales (Feb) 682K forecast, 657K previous

•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) -10.5% previous

•14:00 US  Richmond Manufacturing Index (Mar) 8 forecast, 6 previous

•14:00 US  Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Mar) 12 previous

•14:00 US  Richmond Services Index (Mar) 11 previous

•14:00   Belgium NBB Business Climate (Mar) -11.4 forecast, -12.3 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• 13:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Currency Forecast          

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday after a German survey signaled improving business sentiment in the region's largest economy. Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 86.7 in March, up from 85.3 in February, matching analyst forecasts. The survey suggests companies anticipate a recovery after two years of economic contraction in Europe's largest economy. The Ifo index, based on 9,000 monthly responses from businesses in manufacturing, services, trade, and construction, reflects growing optimism despite ongoing economic challenges. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Tuesday as investors assessed the impact of tariffs on the global economy and awaited Wednesday’s UK spring statement. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to outline spending cuts and a downgraded growth forecast, reflecting weaker-than-expected economic performance and rising borrowing costs. Meanwhile, signs that the Bank of England remains cautious about rate cuts amid persistent inflation and global trade uncertainty also has provided additional support for the pound. Sterling   was last up 0.2% at $1.2950. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against greenback on Tuesday as traders awaited Australia’s Federal Budget and monthly inflation data for further clarity on interest rate policy.Details of the budget will be announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in parliament at 1930 local time (0830 GMT).Markets are not expected to react significantly to the announcement, with investors likely focusing instead on broader economic indicators and global market trends. Australia’s February inflation data is set for release on Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to a 2.5% annual rise. At GMT 07:05, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.16% to $0.6279. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6347(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6392(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).

 USD/JPY: The dollar gained initially on Tuesday but later retreated as investors digested the BOJ minutes and remained cautious amid ongoing tariff developments.Minutes of the BOJ's January meeting released on Tuesday showed policymakers discussed the pace of raising interest rates.The BOJ minutes showed that members agreed to continue tightening policy if the outlook for economic activity and prices materialized, given that real interest rates remained significantly low. Investors remained focused on the upcoming reciprocal tariffs promised by U.S. President Donald Trump. While Trump confirmed on Monday that automobile tariffs are coming soon, he suggested that not all threatened levies would take effect on April 2, with some countries potentially receiving exemptions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.26(Feb 28th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.17(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.29(March 24th low).

Equities Recap           

European shares climbed on Tuesday after a German survey showed improved business sentiment in the region’s largest economy, bolstering optimism just days after a historic debt deal aimed at reviving sluggish growth.

At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was upby 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.05 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices inched higher on Tuesday as ongoing uncertainty over impending U.S. reciprocal tariffs and their potential impact on the global economy supported safe-haven demand.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,020.73 an ounce, as of 1157 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.3% at $3,024.40.

Oil prices climbed for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, driven by expectations of tightening global supply after the U.S. imposed tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan crude. However, gains were capped as OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase output in May.

Brent crude futures were up 46 cents, or 0.6%, at $73.46 a barrel by 1023 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 41 cents, also 0.6%, to $69.52.