Market Roundup
• U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Oct): 0.9%, 1.6% forecast, 1.3% previous.
• U.K. Construction Output (MoM) (Oct): -0.6%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• U.K. GDP (MoM) (Oct): -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous.
• U.K GDP (YoY) (Oct): 1.1%, 1.4% forecast, 1.1% previous.
• U.K Index of Services: 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• U.K Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): -0.8%, -1.2% forecast, -2.5% previous.
• U.K Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 1.1%, 0.9% forecast, -2.0% previous.
• U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct): -0.8%, -0.1% forecast, -2.2% previous.
• U.K Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): 0.5%, 1.1% forecast, -1.7% previous.
• U.K Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous.
• U.K Trade Balance (Oct): -22.54B, -19.10B forecast, -18.88B previous.
• U.K Trade Balance Non-EU (Oct): -10.26B, -6.82B previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•German HICP (MoM) (Nov): -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• German HICP (YoY) (Nov): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Oct): -1.4% forecast, 4.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q3): 79.3% forecast, 79.3% previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Oct): 168.7K previous
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct): -0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 413 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 549 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:35 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Friday as markets continued to digest less-hawkish-than-expected comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following a widely anticipated quarter-point rate cut.
The European Central Bank has reiterated a number of times it is "in a good place", with regard to the outlook for inflation and growth and did not see any immediate need to cut rates again, leading markets to assume borrowing costs would remain largely stable next year.Comments from influential policymaker Isabel Schnabel earlier in the week suggested that she at least believed the next likely move in rates would be a hike, prompting a flurry of positioning and a rise in yields.Next week brings delayed U.S. jobs numbers and several key central bank decisions, including the ECB, which is not expected to change monetary policy or signal anything about a possible near-term change. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1752(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1791(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1670(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1618(SMA20).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Friday as the pound came under pressure following weaker-than-expected UK GDP data.Britain’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the three months to October, signalling a loss of momentum ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget.The Office for National Statistics reported that gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in the August-to-October period. GDP slipped 0.1% in October, contrary to forecasts of a 0.1% rise. Despite the volatility of monthly data, the figures showed the economy has failed to register growth since June.Friday’s release raised doubts about the Bank of England’s assumption that the economy will grow by approximately 0.3% in Q4. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3423(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3524(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3368(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3282(Dec 10th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near a three-month high on Friday, supported by growing bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates. The currency shrugged off weaker-than-expected jobs data from Thursday and is now eyeing its 2025 high. Market pricing shows an 18% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in the RBA’s 3.6% cash rate in February, rising to 70% for May, with a rate move in August almost fully priced in. Focus is now turning to the Q4 consumer price report due January 28, with analysts cautioning that core inflation could exceed 3%, the upper end of the RBA’s 2%–3% target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6692(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6713(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6556(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday but gains were limited amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. The BoJ is widely anticipated to resume its cycle of rate increases after months of pausing to assess the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff measures. With the current rate move already fully priced in, market attention is now focused on any guidance regarding the pace of future hikes and the likely peak of this tightening cycle.BoJ Governor Ueda gave an unusually direct speech earlier this month, clearly signaling a rate increase at the upcoming meeting. In a December 2–9 survey, 90% of economists (63 out of 70) predicted the BoJ would raise short-term rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at next week’s policy meeting.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.58 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.44 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.55(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stocks rose in early Friday trading, heading for a third consecutive weekly gain, as the Fed’s recent rate cut buoyed sentiment.
At (GMT 13:28),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed 1% to a seven-week high on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, while silver reached a record peak.
Spot gold rose 1%to $4,327.31 per ounce by 1248GMT, its highest level since October 21, and was set fora 3.1%weekly gain.
Oil prices edged lower on Friday, heading for a weekly decline, as investors weighed a global supply glut, the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, and concerns over disruptions to Venezuelan oil supplies.
Brent crude futures were down 19 cents, or 0.31%, to $61.09 a barrel at 1125 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 15 cents, or 0.26%, at $57.45. Both benchmarks fell by about 1.5% on Thursday.
