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Europe Roundup: Sterling climbs as UK PMI data beats expectations, European stocks fall, Gold eases, Oil slips -December 16th,2025

Market Roundup

•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct): 4.7%, 4.4% forecast, 4.9% previous

•UK GBP Claimant Count Change (Nov): 20.1K, 21.6K forecast, -3.9K previous

•UK GBP Average Earnings ex Bonus (Oct): 4.6%, 4.5% forecast, 4.7% previous

•EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.6, 48.1 forecast, 47.8 previous

•EU HCOB France Services PMI (Dec): 50.2, 51.1 forecast, 51.4 previous

•EU HCOB France Composite PMI (Dec): 50.1, 50.3 forecast, 50.4 previous

•EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 47.7, 48.6 forecast, 48.2 previous

•EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (Dec): 52.6, 53.0 forecast, 53.1 previous

•EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec): 52.6, 53.3 forecast, 53.6 previous

•EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 49.2, 49.9 forecast, 49.6 previous

•EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec): 51.9, 52.7 forecast, 52.8 previous

•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec): 52.1, 51.6 forecast, 51.2 previous

•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Dec): 52.1, 51.6 forecast, 51.3 previous

•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 51.2, 50.3 forecast, 50.2 previous

• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec): 45.8, 38.4 forecast, 38.5 previous

•  EU  ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec): 33.7, 26.3 forecast, 25.0 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% forecast

•13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov): 40K forecast, 119K forecast

•13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Nov): 4.5% forecast, 4.4% forecast

•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% forecast

•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% forecast

•13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov): 97K previous

•13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Nov): 8.0% previous

•13:30 US Participation Rate (Nov): 62.4% previous

•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov): 3.8%

•13:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Oct): 0.3%, -0.1% previous

•13:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.0% previous

•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.0% previous

•13:30 US Building Permits (Sep): 1.340M forecast, 1.330M previous

•13:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep): -8.5% previous

•13:30 US Housing Starts (Sep): 1.320M forecast, 1.307M previous

•13:30 US Government Payrolls (Nov): 22.0K previous

•13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov): -6K previous

•13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Nov): 34.2 previous

•13:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct): 4.26% previous

•13:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Sep): -2.3% previous

•13:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous

•13:55 US  Redbook (YoY): 5.7% previous

•14:45 US  S&P Global Services PMI (Dec): 54.0 forecast, 54.1 previous

•14:45 US  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 52.0 forecast, 52.2 previous

•14:45 US  S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec): 54.2 previous

•15:00 US  Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.0% previous

•15:00 US  Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep): 0.0% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•No events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro firmed  against the dollar on Tuesday as economic data out of the euro zone was mixed but supported the ECB's higher-for-longer policy rate stance and bolstered the euro. Data showed German investor morale rising more than expected in December and euro zone business activity growth slowing at the end of 2025. Europe’s major economies ended a turbulent year with weak momentum, new data on Tuesday showed, offering little evidence of a rebound despite the region weathering U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade pressures.The 20-nation eurozone economy performed better than feared, partially offsetting the impact of rising U.S. tariffs on exports and reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank has concluded its interest rate cuts. The preliminary eurozone composite HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a three-month low of 51.9 in December, missing forecasts as a sharp decline in German manufacturing outweighed gains in France.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1787(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1814(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1694(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1633(SMA20).

GBP/USD:  Sterling firmed against dollar on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected UK manufacturing PMI data supported the pound. The composite S&P Global PMI climbed to 52.1 in December’s flash reading from 51.2 in November, beating all forecasts   but remaining below its long-term average.The headline PMI and the services index both hit two-month highs, while manufacturing activity recorded its strongest reading in 15 months.Separate data showed, Britain’s unemployment rate rose to its highest level since early 2021, while private sector pay growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly five years ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ annual budget last month.The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the first time since August, though the decision is likely to be close as some policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation pressures.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3450(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3480(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3369(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3304(50%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors digested Australian economic data and awaited new market catalysts. Consumer sentiment in Australia declined in December, with households expressing concerns over inflation and interest rates, following a four-year high in November. According to a Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey, consumer sentiment dropped 9% to 94.5 in December, down from a 12.8% rise in November, falling below the neutral 100 mark as pessimists outnumbered optimists. Meanwhile, separate data showed the Composite PMI slipped to a seven-month low of 51.1 in December. Growth in the services sector slowed to 51 from 52.8, while manufacturing activity inched up to 52.2 from 51.6.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6692(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6713(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6556(SMA 20)

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased on Tuesday as the Japanese yen gained ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Friday. The BOJ is expected to lift short-term rates to 0.75% from 0.5%, marking a three-decade high, and signal further hikes, closing the year with two increases despite U.S. tariff pressures and the inauguration of a dovish prime minister. While still low by global standards, the move represents another step in Governor Kazuo Ueda’s efforts to normalize monetary policy. Market focus will be on Ueda’s post-meeting comments for indications of the future rate trajectory. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.32(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.88(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  154.50 (Daily low)  a break below could take the pair towards 154.24 (38.2%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks slipped on Tuesday, while Wall Street was poised for a lower open as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data.

At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down  at 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.29 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.02 percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday below $60 a barrel, the lowest level since May, as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal grew, fueling expectations of possible sanction relief.

Brent crude futures fell 81 cents, or around 1.3%, to $59.75 a barrel at 1214 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $55.98 a barrel, down 84 cents, or nearly 1.5%.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as investors grew cautious ahead of key U.S. jobs data due later in the day, as it is expectedto shed light on future Federal Reserve interest rate cut prospects.

Spot gold lost 0.6% to $4,277.20 per ounce, as of 1102 GMT. Bullion has rallied 64% year-to-date.

U.S. gold futures were down 0.7% at $4,305.30.

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